Research & Commentary Results

Israelis and Palestinians tend to be invested in the notion that their conflict is unique in its intractability. But other conflicts have reached a measure of resolution, or at least extended periods of non-violence. Learning from their limited success can offer insights and key policy implications; learning from their failures can provide valuable warnings and lessons. Comparing conflicts can even humanize what’s happening in Israel and the occupied territories.

Jared Kushner was on a Middle East mission last week attempting to do what at least half a dozen U.S. emissaries and special presidential envoys have failed to do for more than two decades: putting the peace process on track toward concluding a final settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. But there was a marked change in the U.S. tone, as Kushner, accompanied by Special Envoy for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt and Deputy N.S.A. Adviser Dina Powell, met with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt before heading to Israel and the West Bank.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Gerald Feierstein, Randa Slim, Bilal Y. Saab, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including tensions between Washington and Cairo over Egypt’s excessive authoritarian crackdown, Russia’s attempt to help mediate the G.C.C. crisis, the likely postponement of the Kurdish independence referendum, the performance of the Lebanese Army in anti-ISIS operations, and the Iraqi oil minister’s trip to Moscow to discuss oil production cuts.

The liberation of Tal Afar is a “major defeat for America and terrorists” and paves the way for the expulsion of U.S. Troops from Iraq, says an article in hardline Javan Online, a mouthpiece of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow was closely monitored in Tehran.

A senior commander of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Force (P.M.F.) has announced that forces from al-Hashd al-Turkmani will play a major role in the military operation to liberate the city of Tal Afar from the Islamic State, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported today. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the chief operational commander and deputy head of the P.M.F., made the statement after meeting with the leaders of Hashd al-Turkmani, a P.M.F. unit close to Iran and strongly anti-American.

The Middle East Dialogue, a regional Track 1.5 group in which officials and non-officials from the region and beyond meet to discuss current issues in their personal capacities, met May 12-13 in Malta. Read the full report (PDF).

Executive Summary

Iraqi Kurdistan’s democratic future and stability is at risk, and one party and family is especially closely linked to the crisis. In recent years, the Barzani family and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (K.D.P.) have consolidated power while displaying indifference to rule of law when facing critics or uncooperative minorities. This creeping autocracy should urgently concern those hoping to see a stable new democracy in a troubled region. On September 25, the Kurdish region is due to hold its independence referendum.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Paul Salem, Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the upcoming trip by the U.S. delegation headed by Jared Kushner to Israel/Palestine, Iraq’s anti-ISIS operation in Tal Afar, President Trump’s upcoming announcement on U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan, Iran’s efforts to find a role in China’s One Belt, One Road project, and Turkey’s rocky relations with Germany.

Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) commanders say their paramilitary forces are actively participating in the recently-launched military operation to liberate the city of Tal Afar from the Islamic State, the Iranian media report. The Badr Organization, a powerful Iranian-supported P.M.U. group, announced on Sunday that its forces have captured “mountainous regions” in northwestern parts of Tal Afar. A report in Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, said P.M.F.

Regional Arab states and their Western allies are attempting to divide the Iraqi Shiites and drive a wedge between Tehran and Baghdad to alter the balance of power in Iraq, warns an article in Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Isl

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Force (P.M.F.) will deploy 20,000 fighters to participate in the upcoming ground operation to liberate the city of Tal Afar from the Islamic State, P.M.F. Spokesman Ahmed al-Assadi revealed today. In an interview with Lebanon’s al-Mayadeen TV channel, Assadi said Haider al-Abadi, the prime minister and commander-in-chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, will announce the start date for the operation.

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

Iranian media outlets, analysts and politicians warn that Saudi Arabia and its regional allies are cultivating close ties with Muqtada al-Sadr and other Iraqi Shiite clerics and political leaders to roll back Iran’s influence in post-Islamic State Iraq and the broader region. While some suggest that Riyadh’s outreach to Iraqi Shiites is part of the kingdom’s efforts to defuse tension with Tehran, others see it as a plot to isolate Iran. At the center of this debate is al-Sadr, who recently visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and is scheduled to travel to Egypt soon.