Research & Commentary Results

One hallmark of Sudan’s most recent protests has been the protestors’ fierce determination that the military not be their partner in the struggle for democratization. Some GCC states, however, are getting involved in Sudan, using their financial means to influence the country’s future. In doing so, they risk making it the Arab world’s next theater for intra-GCC rivalry.

International attention on the Yemen conflict remains focused heavily on the humanitarian dimensions of the crisis, Saudi-Iranian competition for advantage there, and the UN’s fitful efforts to return the parties to the negotiating table. But another aspect of the conflict may have more significant long-term consequences for both Yemenis and the international community: the declining relevance of Sana’a at the center of a unified Yemeni state and the increasing local autonomy in large parts of the country.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Rauf Mammadov, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iran’s announcement that it has exceeded its enriched uranium limit, Turkey’s purchase of Russia’s S-400s missile defense system over American objections, an Emirati announcement that it will downsize military involvement in Yemen, the resumption of intra-Afghan peace talks, Russia’s continuing embrace of OPEC+ oil production cuts, and the emergence of potential threats to Tunisia’s democracy.

The Trump administration’s economic workshop in Bahrain produced some noteworthy moments that reflected recent changes in Israeli-Gulf relations, but it fell well short of its original declared intent. Neither Israeli nor Palestinian officials attended, and it did not conclude with any tangible steps to advance the peace process.

Competition for security and energy is at the center of recent developments in the Eastern Mediterranean. Countries from Egypt to Turkey are moving to secure, exploit, and market their (not always fair) share of the game-changing offshore natural gas reserves. Russia, China, and Iran are securing port facilities, and in the case of Russia, drilling rights, in Lebanon and Syria. 

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Guney Yildiz, Nathan Stock, Elizabeth Dent, and Eran Etzion provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including this week’s Bahrain “workshop” on Palestine’s economic development, an opposition victory in Istanbul’s rerun election, the release of a portion of the Trump administration’s Israel-Palestine peace plan, the fracturing of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, and Tuesday’s trilateral meeting between the U.S., Israel, and Russia.

In May, the European Council adopted the 2018 iteration of the EU Annual Report on Human Rights and Democracy in the World. Promoting human rights has long been a priority for the EU, but in practice the bloc is selective about the human rights violations its analyzes, especially when it comes to the Middle East.

MEI scholars Mirette Mabrouk and Rauf Mammadov join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the region’s energy boom, how significant recent finds are to the global market, and the challenges facing regional energy cooperation.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iran’s announcement that it will increase uranium enrichment, Istanbul’s upcoming mayoral election, potential leadership shifts in Tehran, and a rise in political tensions following Pakistan’s anti-corruption crackdown.

The U.S. and Iran are locked in conflict. Regardless of the details or culpability regarding the latest attack on two tankers in the Gulf, the conflict is centered on Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign and Tehran’s response that it will not sit idly by while its economy is brought to its knees. Paul Salem sketches out five possibilities for where things might be headed.

The Trump administration’s upcoming conference in Bahrain, scheduled for June 25-26, under the pretext of boosting the Palestinian economy, has put Jordan in an unenviable position. Forced to choose, Amman seems to have opted to follow Washington’s wishes over those of its overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian domestic audience.

In late May, Saudi Aramco signed an agreement to buy 5 million tons per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from San Diego-based Sempra Energy’s planned LNG terminal in Port Arthur, Texas. The deal exemplifies Saudi Aramco’s determination to boost the share of LNG and petrochemicals in its portfolio before its long-awaited public offering in 2021.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Birol Baskan, Eran Etzion, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including recent regional summits in Mecca to discuss Iran and the Qatar crisis, Benjamin Netanyahu’s gambit to retain power in Israel, and escalating hostilities between the Pakistani military and the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement.

Sometime in June the UN Security Council will vote to approve another six-month renewal of the mandate of the 1000-strong UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) deployed in the Golan Heights. For more than four decades, the UN Security Council has unanimously renewed the mission’s mandate to maintain the ceasefire between Israel and Syria, but this will be the first time it has come up for a vote since President Donald Trump signed a proclamation recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the area of the Golan Heights on March 25th.