Research & Commentary Results

January 12, 2018 – The protests shaking provincial cities and towns in Iran since December 28, 2017 are a new and different phenomenon for the Islamic Republic. Young, politically voiceless people of modest means are apparently frustrated over the economic prospects and inequities they perceive. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) were pleased to provide an inside view of the demonstrations and how they contrast with the “Green Movement” of 2009 or an Iranian “spring” of the like that spread through the Arab world in 2011.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Eran Etzion provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s statement that he will no longer waive U.S. nuclear sanctions on Iran, new developments in northern Syria, Pakistan’s response to the withdrawal of U.S. security assistance, and Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to India.

Afghan authorities in western Herat Province have arrested a government official who allegedly spied for Iran and transferred sensitive government documents to the Iranian intelligence agencies, the Afghan media reported. Jilani Farhad, the spokesman for the government of Herat, told the Khama News Agency that Asadullah Reza-yi, who previously worked in neighboring Farah Province, was under surveillance for a long time before he was arrested. The suspect is transferred to Kabul for further investigation, he added.

The deputy head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) has said that the Islamic Republic will not allow international inspectors to visit the country’s military sites, the Iranian media reported.

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said today that its forces have seized a shipment of explosives and suicide vests in the restive southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan. According to a statement released by the public relations department of the IRGC Ground Force’s Quds Base (not to be confused with IRGC’s elite Quds Force responsible for external operations), the explosives and communications and other assets were captured in the Saravan county of Sistan and Baluchestan.

A prominent Afghan politician has cautioned that it is not in the interest of Iran to have close relations with the Taliban, Afghan media reported. “As an Afghan, I explicitly state that cultivating close relations – I hope it is a mistake – with an enemy, which has no difference with ISIS in its essence and substance, is harmful not only to the Iranian people but also to the people Afghanistan,” Amrullah Saleh, the head of the Afghan Green Trend and former intelligence chief, said at the Tehran Security Conference.

Iran’s Defense Minister accused the United States of playing a role in the latest anti-regime protests in the country and threatened that Tehran will take retaliatory measures against US interests.

The latest antigovernment protests in Iran indicate that the regime’s costly and destabilizing role in regional conflicts is taking a political toll at home. While economic grievances are the key driver of the current protests, ordinary Iranians are questioning the wisdom of their government’s military adventurism abroad and support for foreign state and non-state actors at the expense of domestic priorities.

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

The Turkish government today summoned the Iranian and Russian ambassadors to protest “recurrent attacks” by the Syrian Army in Idlib Province against Syrian opposition forces backed by Ankara, the

Iran’s Supreme Leader today accused the United States and its regional allies of fomenting unrest in the country and warned that Tehran will retaliate against Washington. “You inflicted damage on Iran in these days and this will not go unanswered,” he stressed, addressing the US government. “The American President says that… the Iranian government is terrified by America’s power. Well, if we’re scared of you, how did we drive you out of Iran in the 1970s and evicted you from the entire region in 2010s?” he added.

An Iranian parliamentary delegation visited Syria to seek ways of boosting bilateral ties between the two countries, particularly in the economic and trade sectors.

An official of the Fatemiyoun Division has revealed that at least 2,000 Afghan Shiites have been killed and 8,000 more injured in the Syrian conflict – more than twice the number previously reported. The Fatemiyoun Division is a predominantly Afghan militia unit that has been fighting under the leadership of Iran’s elite Quds Force in Syria to prop up the embattled regime of Bashar al-Assad.

A senior official of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has announced that the paramilitary Basij Force will soon begin patrolling missions in the capital city of Tehran, IRGC-affiliated media outlets reported. “All necessary coordination efforts for a plan to conduct region-centric patrols have taken place with the law enforcement forces and the Judiciary. And this plan will soon begin in Tehran,” Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Yazdi, the commander of the IRGC Greater Tehran’s Mohammad Rasullah, said.

Since antigovernment protests began in the Iranian city of Mashhad last week and soon spread across the country, Islamic Republic authorities have intensified Internet crackdown in an effort to block the Iranian people from access to information and means of communication. The primary target has been Telegram, the most popular messaging app used by about half of Iran’s 80 million population. Over the weekend, the Iranian government “temporarily” blocked Telegram and Instagram, another popular social media platform.