Research & Commentary Results

President Hassan Rouhani continues to insist that the 2015 nuclear deal is safe, despite very vocal agitation from the Trump White House. The Trump administration’s September 14 decision to continue to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil and gas industries—as is required by the nuclear deal as long as Tehran is compliant with its obligations—also points to the deal’s strong likelihood for survival in the foreseeable future.

The U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee passed two bills today that tighten sanctions on Hezbollah. The bills amend sections of the Hezbollah International Financing Act of 2015. The first bill imposes sanctions on any foreign person that assists a number of key Hezbollah financial, security, foreign relations, and media institutions. The second bill imposes sanctions on persons responsible for use of people as human shields in the 2006 war or thereafter, and names Hezbollah senior leadership among those intended.

Iranian-aligned Iraqi militant leaders continue to threaten violence against the Kurdish Regional Government (K.R.G.) over the independence vote on Monday. “Kurdistan’s referendum has no value and the resistance will take a series of measures to respond,” said Jafar al-Husseini, the spokesman of the Hezbollah Brigades, an Iranian-sponsored militia group within the Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.). “Officials in Kurdistan are American tools in Iraq and the region.

Local officials in western Afghanistan say Iran and Pakistan continue to assist Taliban fighters to destabilize the region. “Pakistan and Iran support the Taliban. Residents have seen Pakistani and Iranian clerics bringing money to Taliban in Shindand [District,” alleged Abdul Ghani Noori, the head of Zer Koh District of Herat Province, bordering Iran. He claimed that between 200 and 400 Taliban militants are present in the district and called on Afghan security forces to launch an “extensive operation” against terrorists in the area.

Iranian authorities have stepped up security measures in Kurdish regions in the northwest since Iraqi Kurdistan held an independence vote on Monday, the BBC Persian reports. The government has suspended or slowed access to the internet in some western regions, including in Kurdistan Province, which borders Iraqi Kurdistan. Video footages show that the government has dispatched armed forces and riot police as well as tanks and armed vehicles to Kurdish areas.

Iranian leaders and state-run media outlets reacted angrily to Iraqi Kurdistan’s decision to hold an independence referendum on Monday, and threatened retaliatory actions against Erbil. Tehran halted all flights to and from Erbil and Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq and the Iranian military launched war games near the Kurdish border. Senior Iranian officials stressed that the Islamic Republic rejects the plebiscite and described it as an “Israeli and American plot” to divide Iraq and counter Iranian influence in the region.

President Donald Trump spent a portion of his first speech before the U.N. General Assembly attacking Iran. MEI experts Gerald Feierstein and Ahmad Majidyar join host Paul Salem for a discussion of the speech and what lies ahead for U.S.-Iran relations and the nuclear deal.

President Donald Trump spent a portion of his first speech before the U.N. General Assembly attacking Iran. MEI experts Gerald Feierstein and Ahmad Majidyar join host Paul Salem for a discussion of the speech and what lies ahead for U.S.-Iran relations and the nuclear deal.

Turkey’s Chief of the General Staff Hulusi Akar, leading a high-ranking military delegation, will visit Tehran for strategic talks next week, the Iranian media reported today. Akar is expected to meet with his Iranian counterpart General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, President Hassan Rouhani and other top Iranian military and political leaders.

Iran will start constructing an oil refinery in Syria by this year’s end, a senior official of Iran’s Research Center of Petroleum Industry (R.I.P.I.) announced today.

Read the full interview on the Cipher Brief. 

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Gonul Tol, W. Robert Pearson, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Kurdish independence referendum and how it will impact the K.R.G.’s negotiations with Baghdad, Turkey’s limited options to respond to the referendum, growing ties between Turkey and Russia, and the mounting political pressure on Iran’s President Rouhani amid President Trump’s attacks on the nuclear deal.

An Iraqi militia group today accused the Kurdish peshmerga forces of having “occupied” the province of Kirkuk and stressed that his forces are ready to “liberate disputed regions” in Iraq. “The Iraqi government should act with determination to liberate Kirkuk from separatist paramilitaries before it is too late,” Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iranian-sponsored group fighting in Iraq and Syria, said in a statement as Iraqi Kurds were casting their ballots for an independence referendum.

Iranian leaders strongly denounced today’s referendum vote for the Iraqi Kurdistan region and warned that the move could have serious ramifications for Iraq and the broader region.

An analysis article in Iran’s Fars News Agency suggests that Tehran may be open to French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to “supplement” the Iran nuclear deal if such negotiations are to start near the year 2025. But it stressed that Tehran will under no circumstances hold talks about the country’s missile program. “At present, the French proposal seeks to address two issues: the sunset provision about Iran’s nuclear activities after 2025 and the country’s missile program.