Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, contributors Paul Salem, Eran Etzion, Alex Vatanka, and Bilal Saab provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the rising tension between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon over Hezbollah’s presence in Yemen, rumors that an Israeli attack on Lebanon is imminent, the Saudis’ latest attempt to round up collective action against Iran, and the new phase in the Saudi-Iran proxy war following the recent explosion of a pipeline in Bahrain.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met with Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon today in the capital city of Dushanbe to discuss ways to improve economic and trade relations between the two countries and coordinate their counterterrorism efforts in the region. The Iranian foreign minister arrived in Dushanbe on Wednesday and held meetings with his Tajik counterpart and participated in the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new embassy building in the Tajik capital.

Yesterday’s edition of Jameeh-ye Farda, a reformist Iranian outlet, was published without an article written by its lead columnist Morteza Simiyari. The article, “Are We Hearing the Echo of the War? Russia, Instigator of War between Iran and Saudi Arabia,” was censored by the government,  but it later surfaced on Gooya News, an independent news outlet in the Netherlands.

The top Iranian nuclear official has warned that Washington wants to “annihilate” the nuclear deal and blame Iran for it, the Iranian media reported.

The outgoing commander of the Iranian Navy hailed the expanding presence of the country’s naval forces in international waters and said the Navy plans to send fleets to open seas between Europe and Americas.

The Syrian Army and Iranian-led forces have captured Abu Kamal, a strategic border town in eastern Syria and the last major ISIS stronghold in the country, Iranian and Arab media report. While the physical and military defeat of the Islamic State is good news, the rapid territorial gains by pro-Syrian regime forces, particularly in the oil-rich eastern province of Deir Ezzor, have increased the risk of a potential confrontation with U.S.-backed Syrian opposition forces that have also captured strategic areas from ISIS in northern and eastern Syria.

The Houthi missile attack against King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday not only heightened tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but also triggered a war of words between media outlets representing different factions in the Islamic Republic.

Harakat al-Nujaba, a militia unit within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), lashed out at the United States for seeking to impose sanctions against the group and other Iranian-sponsored militia organizations fighting in Iraq and Syria. On November 3, a bill was introduced the U.S. House of Representatives, entitled “Iranian Proxies Terrorist Sanctions Act of 2017,” which, if passed, will impose terrorism-related sanctions with respect to Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Harakat al-Nujaba groups.

The resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Sunday has sent shockwaves in Tehran. While Iranian leaders and their regional allies try to appear measured and confident, they fear that political instability in Lebanon and a potential war between Israel and Iran’s ally Hezbollah – particularly at a time when Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies are still engaged in the Syrian war – could adversely impact Tehran’s regional ambitions.

Saad Hariri’s unexpected resignation has rattled Tehran. Many Iranian officials, analysts and media outlets warn that the Lebanese prime minister’s resignation is part of a broader strategy by the United States and its regional allies – particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia – to counter the growing influence of Iran and its proxies in the Middle East.

The sudden resignation of Massoud Barzani as president of the Kurdish Region of Iraq (K.R.I.) casts into high relief the challenges that confront U.S. policy in the region today. Focused military action has set ISIS on its heels. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford, U.S.

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

A prominent Iranian cleric today warned the Rouhani government against trusting European powers to renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal Tehran signed with world powers in 2015. “The Europeans are currently betraying [us] and defending the Americans.

The Iranian media reports that at least eight Iranian border guards were killed in clashes with an armed group today in the northwestern province of West Azarbaijan. Alireza Radfar, the deputy governor-general of West Azerbaijan, said the “terrorists” also sustained heavy casualties. He added that security forces are conducting a search operation in the area for other members of the group.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said today that the United States is Iran’s “number one enemy” and lashed out at President Donald Trump for calling his country a “terrorist nation.”  He also stressed that Tehran will defy U.S. pressure and not give more concessions to Washington.