The Coming Debate Over the US Military Presence in the Gulf
The war with Iran is hardly over, but the debate over the shape and nature of the post-conflict American posture in the Gulf region is just beginning. Undoubtedly, how the war ends will affect how the United States adjusts its role. While this debate is still in its early stages, something of a conventional wisdom is already developing in policy circles that could seriously compromise American influence in the Middle East.
Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy
With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.
The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War – From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: The Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict
Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution.
The decision U.S. President Donald Trump made to attack Iran was a high-stakes gamble. The gamble is not really in the military campaign itself. It is whether a massive air campaign can trigger a popular rebellion that takes down the regime in Tehran. This could pay off brilliantly, but it could also fail miserably.
The Kurdish Card: Can Iranian Kurds Shape the War’s Endgame?
The war against Iran has entered its third week with no clear endgame—and no clear strategy from Washington.
At one point President Trump appeared to encourage Iranian Kurdish groups to rise up against the regime, before quickly walking it back. Meanwhile, some exiled Kurdish opposition figures say they already have an invasion plan and only need US air cover.
The Kurdish question is once again at the center of regional politics. In this episode, we examine the role of Iranian Kurds in the opposition—and what this moment could mean for their future.
If the Regime Survives: Iran War Raises the Ante for US, Israel
The United States and Israel both hope for the grand prize: the emergence of a new regime in Iran to replace the Islamic Republic. For the US, this would close the chapter on a hostile and at times violent relationship that has endured since 1979. For Israel, this would see the end not only of a regime with a deep ideological commitment against it but also the foe that Israel sees as behind all fronts of the war it has fought since October 7, 2023.
How the US and Israel Can Stave off Strategic Failure in Iran
Despite a dazzling military onslaught, an Iranian regime that faces a threat to its very existence is demonstrating an entirely predictable willingness to stay the course at all costs. As things stand now, the joint US-Israeli war risks ending in military victory but becoming a strategic failure.
Iraq’s oil paralysis: A self-inflicted wound and a gift to Tehran
With the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil production from Iraq’s south in free fall, Baghdad’s failure to maximize the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline is no longer a policy dispute. It is a national emergency.
Tripartite Gulf Power: The Diverging Geoeconomics of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, and the Implications for MENA and the Global Order
While acknowledging the centrality of security tensions and potential conflict in the Gulf, this essay intentionally sets aside a detailed treatment of military and hard-power dynamics, concentrating instead on the geoeconomic logics of capital, infrastructure, energy, and connectivity, through which Gulf states now articulate power in a fragmented world order.
Shockwaves Across Asia: The Iran War’s Strategic Fallout
The Israeli-U.S. military strikes on Iran that began on February 28 have done more than ignite a Middle Eastern war. They have sent shockwaves rolling across Asia, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Sea of Japan, exposing the brittle underpinnings of regional energy systems, straining diplomatic balancing acts, and forcing governments to make hard choices they have long deferred.
Nearly two weeks into the US and Israel’s war with Iran, MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to explore the impact of the widening regional conflict on Turkey. On March 9, Ankara announced that NATO air defenses shot down a second Iranian ballistic missile that had entered Turkish airspace since the start of the war and stated it would take all necessary defensive measures. Turkey is now caught in the middle of an escalating conflict that could pose risks to the country’s security, economy, and foreign policy. Tol, Taylor, and Czekaj discuss what a prolonged regional conflict could mean for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, his regional political objectives, and Turkey’s relationship with key Middle Eastern neighbors.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
