Latest on the Iran War

Read the full article on Foreign Affairs.

In this week’s Monday Briefing MEI experts provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkish President Erdogan’s trip to Russia tomorrow, Iranian President Rouhani’s upcoming meeting with President Putin in Baku, the ongoing battle for Aleppo, strains in U.S.-Pakistan relations over the Haqqani Network, and what’s next for Tunisia’s political transition following the vote of no confidence in the current government.

U.S.-European nuclear-related sanctions on Iran in 2011 resulted in a major reduction of Japanese crude oil imports from Iran, which were largely offset by increased purchases from other Middle Eastern producers. This pattern remained more or less intact through the end of 2015.[1]                                                                                       

South Korea is the world’s fifth-largest crude oil importer and sixth-largest oil refining country. In June 2012, South Korea suspended all oil imports from Iran in response to a European Union insurance ban on tankers carrying Iranian crude oil.[1] South Korea subsequently obtained a waiver and resumed importing Iranian crude oil. However, the average annual volume of crude oil purchased by South Korea from Iran during the period 2012-2015 was 40% lower than in 2011.

When U.S. and European nuclear-related sanctions against Iran took effect in 2011, India was compelled to reduce its crude oil imports from Iran and to diversify its sources of supply.[1] As a result, the country’s crude oil imports from Iran dropped by 1.33% and 37.81% in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

This paper is part of a MEI scholar series titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”

Summary

Summary

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Daniel Serwer, Alex Vatanka, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the recent Chilcot Report, European trade delegations visit to Iran, and France’s push to end the Lebanon stalemate.

Will Chilcot Report Impact U.S. Policy on Syria?
Daniel Serwer, MEI Scholar

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Hassan Mneimneh, Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the ISIS bombing in Baghdad, this week’s NATO summit in Warsaw, Israel’s outreach to Africa, and the trial in Iran over the ransacking of the Saudi embassy.

Iraqi PM Under Pressure after ISIS Atrocity
Hassan Mneimneh, MEI Scholar

In 2011, China purchased 550,000 b/d, or 11% of its total crude oil imports, from Iran. However, the next year, China’s crude oil imports from Iran plummeted by 20% due to the imposition of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran by the U.S. and European countries. In 2012 and 2013 China’s purchases from Iran fell to just 8% of its total crude oil imports. Progress in the negotiations between Iran and the P-5+1 countries at the end of 2013 permitted China to restore crude imports from Iran to pre-sanction levels.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Brexit’s impact on the Middle East, how Brexit is distracting the E.U. from Israel-Palestine issues, and Iran’s more moderate reshuffling of officials focusing on Syria. 

Brexit’s Impact on the Middle East
Daniel Serwer, MEI Scholar

Read the full article at The Cipher Brief.

Regional Cooperation Series

This Policy Paper is part of The Middle East Institute’s Regional Cooperation Series. Throughout 2016, MEI will be releasing several policy papers by renowned scholars and experts exploring possibilities to foster regional cooperation across an array of sectors. The purpose is to highlight the myriad benefits and opportunities associated with regional cooperation, and the high costs of the continued business-as-usual model of competition and intense rivalry.

Summary

This paper is part of a MEI scholar series titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”

Philip Gordon, a former Middle East policy adviser in the White House, likes to say that President Barack Obama learned three lessons from the region’s unending turmoil.