Lebanon at the Brink: War, Hizballah, and the Fate of Democracy

Israel’s escalating campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah is rapidly turning Lebanon into one of the most unstable fronts in the wider US-Israel confrontation with Iran — pushing an already fragile state to the brink. The war is tearing at Lebanon’s sectarian and political fabric, displacing Shiite communities and deepening polarization between Hezbollah and its rivals.

The government that came to power in February 2025 on a wave of optimism now faces a perfect storm. What does this mean for Lebanon — a country long seen as one of the Middle East’s rare democracies?

Today, we unpack how the Iran war and Israel’s campaign are reshaping Lebanon’s democratic future.