Tripartite Gulf Power: The Diverging Geoeconomics of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, and the Implications for MENA and the Global Order

While acknowledging the centrality of security tensions and potential conflict in the Gulf, this essay intentionally sets aside a detailed treatment of military and hard-power dynamics, concentrating instead on the geoeconomic logics of capital, infrastructure, energy, and connectivity, through which Gulf states now articulate power in a fragmented world order.

It examines the emergence of a new tripartite or three-pillar power configuration in the Gulf, arguing that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have moved decisively beyond a shared Gulf identity toward competing geoeconomic models of power. Far from being a transient phase of intra-Gulf Cooperation Council discord, this divergence reflects a structural transformation in how these Gulf states conceive their sovereignty, influence, and global relevance in a fragmented, multipolar world.

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