Afghanistan-Pakistan

Read the full article in The National Interest.

The following excerpt is from an interview with MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka conducted by J. Dana Stuster for Lawfare. Read the full conversation here.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Marvin G. Weinbaum analyze new Saudi diplomatic engagement with Iraq, the escalating G.C.C. crisis, and the continuation of dynastic politics in Pakistan.

Saudi Reaches out to Iraqi Shiite Leaders
Randa Slim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including the battle for Mosul, corruption in Pakistan, Mahmoud Abbas’s trip to China, and Rouhani’s difficult second presidential term.

Mosul Turning Ugly, Raqqa Front Slows
Charles Lister, Resident Fellow

Read the full article on The National Interest. 

Geopolitical maneuvering, political disunity, endemic corruption, rudderless security apparatus and, most importantly, a confident Taliban movement supported by the Pakistani “deep state” make Afghanistan the most persistent trouble spot. Recent events in the country are dominated by increasing terrorist attacks against security forces and hapless citizens.

The commander of Khatam al-Anbia Construction Headquarters, a conglomerate of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), blasted President Hassan Rouhani’s economic policies and said he “harbors a serious grievance against the Rouhani government.”  In an interview with Iran’s state-run television, Gene

Earlier today, hundreds of people marched the streets of Lashkargah, the capital of Afghanistan’s volatile Helmand Province, to protest Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s latest remarks on water dispute with Afghanistan, the Afghan media reported. Speaking at an international conference on tackling dust storm, Rouhani had criticized the Afghan government and its international allies for constructing dams and preventing the flow of sufficient water into Iran.

With the Islamic State collapsing in Iraq and losing ground in Syria, Iran and its regional proxies see the United States as the primary threat to their influence and ambitions and have stepped up efforts to oust the U.S. military from the region. Through diplomatic outreach – and at times veiled threats – Iranian leaders have been urging the Afghan and Iraqi governments to expel American forces from their countries. Tehran has also deepened its ties with the Taliban and has reportedly teamed up with Moscow to undermine U.S.-led stabilization efforts in war-torn Afghanistan.

The Durand Line issue has continued to complicate the unpredictable nature of the Afghan-Pakistani relationship since the birth of Pakistan. Constant tension haunts their neighborly relations, as apprehensions and suspicions co-exist with some affable gestures. No Afghan government, including the present one headed by President Ashraf Ghani, has ever recognized the legitimacy of the Durand Line, which runs through mountainous terrain and remains largely unpoliced.

Reacting to today’s deadly bombing in Kabul, Iranian leaders and media outlets blamed U.S. policies and military presence in Afghanistan for growing extremism and instability in the war-ravaged country. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said the Kabul attack shows “Takfiri terrorism recognizes no boundaries” and called on regional countries to act in unison to fight terrorism instead of seeking help from outsiders – an apparent reference to the United States, which has more than 8,000 troops in Afghanistan training and assisting the country’s security forces.

This essay examines the effects of the Saudi-Iran rivalry on Sunni-Shia relations in Pakistan. The essay shows that this rivalry, which has sectarian undertones and is partly responsible for the continuing Syrian civil war, has not only complicated Pakistan’s relations with Riyadh and Tehran but has exacerbated Sunni-Shia tensions domestically. Pakistan’s predicament has become even more complicated in light of the recent Trump-led Arab Islamic American Summit.

Afghan officials

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Alex Vatanka, Jonathan M. Winer, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s trip to Israel and the prospects for a peace process, the reelection of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Russia’s planned naval drill off the coast of Libya this week, and the Afghan Taliban’s decision to reject peace talks.