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The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?
  • التحليل
  • The Mecca Joint Défense Agreement: A New Geometry of Middle Eastern Power?

    On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Défense Agreement, a collective-defense pact widely compared to NATO’s Article 5. This essay argues that the comparison is misleading. Mecca borrows NATO’s language of solidarity without yet possessing NATO’s institutional machinery, and the Houthi offensive against Saudi Arabia in September 2026 provided an early and revealing test of what the agreement actually means in practice. Neither Pakistan nor Turkey automatically entered the fight on Saudi Arabia’s behalf, and Washington, despite an initial reluctance to strike directly, remained indispensable through intelligence support and a major proposed F-35 sale. Drawing on realist alliance theory — Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, Stephen Walt, Glenn Snyder, and Steven David — and on the precedent of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), the essay contends that the Middle East is not dividing into rival blocs but moving from hierarchy toward a looser, overlapping geometry of hedged partnerships, in which American exclusivity is eroding considerably faster than American primacy.

    The Mecca Alliance Meets the Red Sea – Saudi Arabia’s New Defense Pact Faces Its First Major Test
  • تعليق
  • The Mecca Alliance Meets the Red Sea – Saudi Arabia’s New Defense Pact Faces Its First Major Test

    When Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to a mutual defense pact in August, it was principally seen as a political commitment. The “Mecca alliance,” as it was dubbed, stipulated that an armed attack on one would be treated as an attack on all three, accompanied by deeper military cooperation.

    The Case for a Middle Course in Afghanistan
  • تعليق
  • The Case for a Middle Course in Afghanistan

    I was a teenage Afghan refugee in Pakistan’s tribal areas when the Twin Towers fell. Almost nobody around us understood the politics of what had happened, but we knew that something had changed for good. Afghanistan, which until then had been our private tragedy and our first exile from Taliban rule, had suddenly become the world’s concern, with the United States leading the response.

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    Monday Briefing: Iranian women’s uprising: Too personal and too political
  • تعليق
  • Monday Briefing: Iranian women’s uprising: Too personal and too political

    اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

    September 26, 2022

    Catastrophic floods: Understanding the gravity of Pakistan’s health and food crises
    Photo by HUSNAIN ALI/AFP via Getty Images
  • التحليل
  • Catastrophic floods: Understanding the gravity of Pakistan’s health and food crises

    Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently warned that his country needs “an infinite amount of funding” to support flood relief efforts. Torrential rains and heavy flooding have killed more than 1,550 people and displaced millions. Compounding the challenge are Pakistan’s intensifying food and health crises, as flood-borne diseases surge and nearly two-thirds of the country’s food basket has been destroyed.

    September 22, 2022

    Pakistan at 75: The clock has run out for business as usual
    Photo by RIZWAN TABASSUM/AFP via Getty Images
  • التحليل
  • Pakistan at 75: The clock has run out for business as usual

    On Aug. 14, Pakistan marked its 75th independence day, like many of the preceding 74, in a state of political and economic crisis. Days later, epic floods would befall the country, submerging a third of it under water. Pakistan can no longer afford business as usual.

    September 7, 2022

    Dysfunctional centralization and growing fragility under Taliban rule
    MARCUS YAM / LOS ANGELES TIMES
  • التحليل
  • Dysfunctional centralization and growing fragility under Taliban rule

    One year ago, on Aug. 31, 2021, the last foreign soldier left Afghanistan. Since then, the situation in the country has only grown more fragile, marked by deteriorating living conditions, widespread human rights violations, and increasing political instability. One key contributing factor to the crisis is a dysfunctional centralized governance structure that has become more paralyzed and unresponsive under Taliban control.

    September 6, 2022

    On the anniversary of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan
    Photo by U.S. Central Command via Getty Images
  • التحليل
  • On the anniversary of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

    On Aug. 30, 2021, the commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, Maj. Gen. Chris Donahue, boarded the last U.S. military flight out of Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul. For many, the image of the final American soldier stepping onto a C-17 military transport plane marked the end of the war. But even as we remember the chaotic end of America’s longest war, we should also recall the sublime acts of loyalty and resolve that took place simultaneously.

    Why the Afghan peace process failed, and what could come next?
    Photo by KARIM JAAFAR/AFP via Getty Images
  • التحليل
  • Why the Afghan peace process failed, and what could come next?

    Multiple factors converged to derail the peace process prior to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The lessons from this failure can inform policymakers on how to successfully pursue a new round of political peace talks involving the Taliban and all major segments of Afghan society.

    August 18, 2022

    The US strike on al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri
  • Podcast
  • The US strike on al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri

    On this week’s episode, host Alistair Taylor explores the ramifications of the CIA drone strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan on July 31. Joining the program are three MEI experts — Mick Mulroy, Javid Ahmad, and Douglas London — who bring with them a variety of perspectives, from intelligence to diplomacy. 

    August 9, 2022

    Afghanistan adrift one year after the Taliban takeover
    الصورة من قبل WAKIL KOHSAR/AFP عبر Getty Images
  • التحليل
  • Afghanistan adrift one year after the Taliban takeover

    Even prior to al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s death in a CIA drone strike on July 31, the last few months have mostly underscored the Taliban’s global isolation and the anguish of the Afghan people. A year on from the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in August 2021, no foreign government has officially recognized the regime.

    August 9, 2022

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    أقدم مطبوعة محكمة مخصصة لدراسة الشرق الأوسط المعاصر، تغطي مجلة MEI الرائدة السياسة والمجتمع والثقافة في المنطقة.