A Strategic Conundrum: Pakistan’s Transit Corridor to Iran as Lifeline or Liability
The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz — disruptive to global trade and energy flows, and devastating for debt-burdened economies — has handed Pakistan an unexpected geoeconomic opportunity, one that may persist even if the framework agreement announced on June 14 results in a lasting peace and permanent reopening of the strait. But seizing it will have interlocking consequences for Islamabad’s ties with Tehran, Washington, and the Gulf states.
Russia’s Taliban Embrace Signals a New Power Shift in Afghanistan
Sometimes the only thing more frightening than Afghanistan’s problems is the Taliban’s solutions and the recently signed Russia-Taliban military-technical agreement may be the most alarming one yet. The partnership signals that Afghanistan’s security architecture is being rebuilt without the United States, and increasingly by America’s rivals. Washington should pay close attention because the deal hands one of the world’s most repressive regimes a pathway to becoming more capable and deeply entrenched in a regional order where Russian influence is expanding at America’s expense.
The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran
As Washington and Tehran edge closer to escalation, the most critical line of communication keeping the crisis from spiraling is being run not by polished diplomats, but by an unlikely figure: a Pakistani general. Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, has quietly become the key intermediary in the U.S.-Iran standoff, managing what may be the most important backchannel between the two sides. The mediation has thrust Pakistan to the center of the crisis while exposing it to enormous risk.
America's War on Terror After Iraq and Afghanistan
The Middle East Institute hosts a lecture and discussion with Mark N. Katz, examining the impact of the current and future US withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan on Islamic radicals. Katz argues that the US withdrawals from both countries will lead radicals to conclude they have defeated the US in the "War on Terror" and that US regional strength is on the decline. This, he argues, will spur Islamic radicals to seek further gains elsewhere.
Few question the desirability of finding a political resolution to the Afghan conflict or doubt Pakistan’s pivotal role. The growing divide of opinion in this country is over how best to achieve that outcome. One camp led by our military strategists insists that various political agreements are likely to result from accumulated military successes, sustained by Afghan governance reforms and economic improvements. Visible counterinsurgency gains are expected to gradually wean fighters away from the ranks of the insurgency.
This Commentary first appeared in McClatchy News on January 5, 2011.
The assassination of Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab, Pakistan's largest province, has illustrated the increasingly chaotic environment in that country, which only promises to get worse in the new year. Weeks before his death, Taseer had the courage to say what his fellow politicians were unwilling to: that Pakistan's blasphemy law must be repealed in order for Pakistan to enter the community of modern nations.
With Pakistan caught up in four wars during the past nine years — the Afghanistan war, the War on Terror, the insurgency in the tribal areas, and the wave of terrorism unleashed by the Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) and the Punjabi Taliban in the rest of the country — it has often been said that the country is facing an existential threat. If this was a cliché before, it is no more so after the catastrophic floods. Pakistan had been living dangerously in the past, but the wars and floods threaten to wash away its future.
The Struggle for a Democratic Future in Afghanistan: The 2010 Parliamentary Elections
The Middle East Institute is proud to host Marvin Weinbaum, scholar at the Middle East Institute, and Caroline Wadhams, Director for South Asia Security Studies at the Center for American Progress, for a discussion on the outcomes and impact of the recent parliamentary elections in Afghanistan. Recently returned from Afghanistan, where
The Middle East Institute is proud to host Mr. Habibullah Khan, current head of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) Secretariat, to discuss the security, policy, and cultural challenges surrounding the integration of FATA into Pakistan's mainstream political system. In his talk, Mr. Khan will highlight the primary characteristics of life in the tribal areas and outline the present governance system.
This piece first appeared as a Commentary on McClatchyDC.com, August 24, 2010
It is hard to imagine a government that faces more existential threats to its people, state, and democracy than the current civilian government in Pakistan.
This Commentary first appeared as an op-ed on Foreign Policy's AfPak Channel, August 18, 2010.
The desperate plight of over 20 million Pakistani citizens displaced and dispossessed by the most ferocious flooding in the history of the young state is heartbreaking. Nature is extracting a cruel price on a population already racked by debilitating poverty and a brutal insurgency.
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