The Middle East Institute hosts a lecture and discussion with Mark N. Katz, examining the impact of the current and future US withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan on Islamic radicals. Katz argues that the US withdrawals from both countries will lead radicals to conclude they have defeated the US in the "War on Terror" and that US regional strength is on the decline. This, he argues, will spur Islamic radicals to seek further gains elsewhere. But regardless of the boost to their cause that the withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan may provide, they will likely meet three key obstacles in their pursuit of increased power and influence. First, other regional powers besides the US will intervene to prevent them from becoming overly influential. Second, Islamic radicals are unlikely to rule benevolently anywhere they come to power, thus creating internal opposition against them. And finally, the more powerful the Islamic radicals think they are, the more likely they are to turn on each other–just as other revolutionaries have.
Iraq’s oil paralysis: A self-inflicted wound and a gift to Tehran
