The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran
As Washington and Tehran edge closer to escalation, the most critical line of communication keeping the crisis from spiraling is being run not by polished diplomats, but by an unlikely figure: a Pakistani general. Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, has quietly become the key intermediary in the U.S.-Iran standoff, managing what may be the most important backchannel between the two sides. The mediation has thrust Pakistan to the center of the crisis while exposing it to enormous risk.
Bonus Episode: Stalled Talks and Next Steps for the US and Iran
This bonus episode of Middle East Focus features a recent MEI Virtual Briefing. Director of Communications Zeina Al-Shaib is joined by MEI Distinguished Diplomatic Fellows Alan Eyre and Daniel Benaim to discuss the historic talks held in Pakistan last weekend between the United States and Iran. Tehran insists the US failed to gain its trust, while the US made its red lines clear and declared it would blockade Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. What happens next? Eyre and Benaim offer insights into what goes on behind the scenes at such negotiations; identify the core issues at play; explore potential incentives to end the war; analyze the weaponization of energy; as well as assess the role of other regional players in this conflict.
The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict: A strategic concern for the US
Pakistan’s relationship with the Afghan Taliban has shifted from open sponsorship in the 1990s to a silent partnership following 2001 to alienation and belligerence since 2021. Their current conflict, which comes at great cost to both countries and seems to have no easy military or political resolution, also poses a threat to the stability and prosperity of neighboring states. Although American strategic interests in the region greatly diminished following the United States’ military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the region’s altered political dynamics have prompted a growing American engagement with Pakistan and tentatively with Afghanistan. At the same time, the US has become a factor in how both Islamabad and Kabul have come to form their national security strategies.
Mosul Turning Ugly, Raqqa Front Slows | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including the battle for Mosul, corruption in Pakistan, Mahmoud Abbas’s trip to China, and Rouhani’s difficult second presidential term.
Geopolitical maneuvering, political disunity, endemic corruption, rudderless security apparatus and, most importantly, a confident Taliban movement supported by the Pakistani “deep state” make Afghanistan the most persistent trouble spot. Recent events in the country are dominated by increasing terrorist attacks against security forces and hapless citizens.
The Durand Line: A British Legacy Plaguing Afghan-Pakistani Relations
The Durand Line issue has continued to complicate the unpredictable nature of the Afghan-Pakistani relationship since the birth of Pakistan. Constant tension haunts their neighborly relations, as apprehensions and suspicions co-exist with some affable gestures. No Afghan government, including the present one headed by President Ashraf Ghani, has ever recognized the legitimacy of the Durand Line, which runs through mountainous terrain and remains largely unpoliced.
The Saudi-Iran Factor in Pakistan’s Sunni-Shia Conflict
This essay examines the effects of the Saudi-Iran rivalry on Sunni-Shia relations in Pakistan. The essay shows that this rivalry, which has sectarian undertones and is partly responsible for the continuing Syrian civil war, has not only complicated Pakistan’s relations with Riyadh and Tehran but has exacerbated Sunni-Shia tensions domestically. Pakistan’s predicament has become even more complicated in light of the recent Trump-led Arab Islamic American Summit.
Accusations are mounting that Iran is ramping up its engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Like a lot of Iran’s murky foreign policy, it is difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. The three questions that need to be answered to clear up the murky relationship between Iran and the Taliban are: why the change in Iran’s policy; when did this policy change occur; and what is the level of support afforded to the Taliban?
Pakistan Protests Top Iranian Military Official’s Cross-Border Attack Warning
Tension between Iran and Pakistan over the latest killing of 10 Iranian border guards continues to escalate despite an agreement between leaders of the two countries last week to jointly tackle cross-border issues.
Zarif Visits Pakistan for Security Talks after Gunmen Killed 10 Iranian Border Guards
Iran and Pakistan agreed Wednesday to work together to boost security along their shared border after Pakistan-based militants killed 10 Iranian border guards in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan last week. A militant group called Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for the attack.
Rouhani Calls on Islamabad to Prosecute Border Guards’ Killers to Save Ties with Tehran
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has sent a letter to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, calling on Islamabad to prosecute perpetrators of an attack that killed 10 Iranian troops along the Iranian-Pakistani border on Wednesday. A militant group called Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for the attack. According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, Rouhani blamed the Pakistani government’s “inaction” and “lack of necessary measures” for repeated attacks originating from Pakistan against Iranian border guards.
Turkey's Erdogan Gets His Presidential Wish | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the victory of Turkish President Erdogan’s “Yes” constitutional referendum campaign to increase his powers, Secretary of Defense Mattis’ trip to the Middle East, the entry of 1,600 candidates for the upcoming Iranian presidential elections, and the alarming violence in Pakistan against accused “blasphemers”.
Islamist Terrorism in Pakistan: New Alignments, New Tactics
Much has been written on the evolution of Islamist terrorism in Pakistan, the role of military dictatorships in nurturing Islamist terrorist groups, and Islamist parties and proselytizing groups working hand in glove with terrorists. Al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban were born in Pakistan, in addition to the country’s own long list of local terrorist groups such as the multi-faceted Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (T.T.P.). Pakistan is now going through a new phase of Islamist militancy, with new alignments and the adoption of new tactics by jihadists.
While the U.S. and Pakistani counterterrorism efforts have degraded al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), sectarian violence across the country continues unabated and threatens to further destabilize Pakistan and the broader region.
Pakistani General's Role in Saudi-Led Coalition Troubles Iran
The Iranian government has said it has “reservations” about the appointment of Pakistan’s former army chief, retired Gen. Raheel Sharif, as the head of the Saudi-led coalition.
Shiite Mobilization and the Transformation of Sectarian Militancy in Pakistan
Historically in Pakistan, Shiite militancy has remained reactive and selective. But with thousands of Pakistani Shiites being recruited and trained by Tehran, the landscape of sectarian militancy is likely to undergo a momentous transformation with a possibility of a head-on confrontation between militant fronts of the two opposing sects. This essay assesses the future impact of Shiite mobilization in Pakistan on the country and how it could transform the local sectarian conflict by fueling radicalization and increasing prospects for ISIS to penetrate and exploit local militant groups to its favor.
