This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Yemen: The Houthis’ Role in the Next Evolution of the Axis of Resistance
The outbreak of the war with Iran demonstrated the strategic value of maritime chokepoints in the Islamic Republic’s confrontation with the United States. But as Tehran’s strategy of using the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Washington seems to be backfiring, Iran is working with the Houthis to strengthen its leverage over another strategic chokepoint: the Bab el-Mandeb. The recent escalation in Yemen should be viewed within this context.
US Regional Foreign Policy: Unforced Diplomatic Errors Risk Accelerating American Retrenchment
As the summer draws to a close, the storyline for the 2026 Iran war remains incomplete and the United States’ broader Middle East policy direction highly uncertain. None of the major issues that have long headlined Washington’s Iran portfolio appear any closer to resolution, and new problems have emerged that did not exist before.
Riyadh and Tehran use OIC to mend ties, but its sway is limited
A year after the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two countries are working to ease regional tensions in the Middle East in exchange for promises of improved bilateral cooperation. But strains persist in the relationship between Riyadh and Tehran, and the two capitals are using the Saudi-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which includes members from 57 Muslim countries, to try to bridge their differences.
Iran’s new nuclear policy between deterrence and pragmatism
The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran has sparked concerns about a potential shift in Tehran’s strategy toward full weaponization of its nuclear program. Under the current circumstances though, maintaining its status as a threshold nuclear power is likely to be Iran’s chosen strategy, in line with its broader shift from strategic patience to active deterrence.
As Armenia gradually reorients toward the West, Azerbaijan faces its own geopolitical choice
In early April, a highly publicized trilateral meeting involving the United States, the European Union, and Armenia was widely believed to mark a turning point in Yerevan’s relationship with the West. If it comes to pass, it will present Baku with its own critical decision: whether to abandon multi-vectorism and more fully align with Russia or the West.
“The IRGC has become a multi-headed dragon”: A conversation with Mohsen Sazegara about the IRGC’s emergence and evolution
This month marks the 45th anniversary of the founding of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Mohsen Sazegara, a non-resident scholar with MEI’s Iran Program, was one of the group’s founders and a member of its first board of commanders. He later became a journalist and a reformist political activist. He was arrested and imprisoned four times before ultimately leaving Iran. He was interviewed by MEI in early May.
It’s time for Tehran to take a cold, hard look at its proxy strategy
The recent blow-for-blow strikes by Iran and Israel are bound to result in some introspection in Tehran. It is the first time since the launch of the “Axis of Resistance” some 20 years ago that Tehran has to choose whether it wants to center its entire national security strategy around the conflict with Israel. Going forward, Tehran could choose to handle this conflict through political and diplomatic means rather than via the Axis of Resistance.
آراء الخبراء: كيف يجب أن نتعامل مع القواعد الجديدة للعبة في الصراع بين إسرائيل وإيران؟
شهد شهر أبريل سلسلة من التصعيدات غير المسبوقة في الصراع الإيراني-الإسرائيلي الذي طال أمده، حيث شن كلا البلدين هجمات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة على أراضي بعضهما البعض لأول مرة في التاريخ.
في أعقاب هذه الضربات، ماذا سيكون تأثيرها على الأمن الإقليمي والبيئة السياسية في المستقبل، وما هو المطلوب لتثبيت قواعد اللعبة الجديدة، وكيف يمكن للدبلوماسية الأمريكية أن تساعد في تسهيل هذه العملية؟ طلب معهد الشرق الأوسط (MEI) من خبرائه إبداء آرائهم في هذا الشأن.
Despite new sanctions measures, targeting Iranian oil sales is a lose-lose proposition for the US
On April 21, the US House of Representatives passed the long-awaited aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. The legislation contained another long-sought-after measure: authority for the US government to tighten restrictions on Iran’s oil exports. But in truth, aggressive US action remains unlikely and there are powerful operational, strategic, and political barriers preventing the US from shutting down Iran’s oil trade or hindering it in a material way.
