Washington says it doesn’t know who runs Iran. Tehran insists its leadership is united. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to sort out where the truth lies. They look at the small circle of political and military figures now steering the war effort in Tehran: who they are, how they make decisions, and how unified they really are. They also discuss the current state of US-Iran negotiations, the role of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, and how the Islamic Republic is preparing for a potential renewal of conflict afterward.
Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It has assembled a temporary system for managing one. Crude exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, while total Gulf shipments reached 15.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of the pre-conflict volume.
Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of US weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.
With the absence of multilateral diplomatic forums in the Middle East and the Trump administration scaling back on U.S. diplomatic outreach, the role of backdoor diplomatic channels, known as “Track II” dialogues, has seldom been more important. Randa Slim, director of MEI’s program on conflict management and Track II dialogues, and Robert Ford, former US ambassador to Syria, join Paul Salem to discuss the role of these dialogues in addressing issues ranging from the Syrian civil war to the conflict in Yemen and regional tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Bahrain says IRGC plotted pipeline bombing near Manama
On Wednesday, the Bahraini Foreign Ministry announced that the country’s security forces have arrested four members of a “terrorist cell” involved in a bomb attack on an oil pipeline and claimed that the suspects had received training in Iran by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC).
Rouhani, Erdogan pledge cooperation, but mutual distrust remains
In a telephone conversation earlier today, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the latest developments in the Syrian conflict. According to Iranian and Turkish media outlets, the two leaders agreed to continue to cooperate to tackle regional security and terrorism problems.
Another Iran-backed militia group threatens US troops in Iraq
A senior official of Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iranian-supported militia group fighting in Iraq and Syria, issued a threat against the US military in Iraq and called on Washington to pull out its troops from the country, the Iranian media reported. “We will never forget the atrocities of the United States in our country and we still have not settled a score with America,” Nasr al-Shamri, an executive director of the group said in a live interview with Al-Furat TV in Iraq.
Iran-backed Iraqi militias step up threat of violence against US forces in Iraq
With ISIS militarily defeated, Iran’s militia allies in Iraq are increasingly threatening violence against American troops and calling for the US withdrawal from the country. On February 7, Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iranian-supported unit within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), issued a statement, warning that its fighters will begin to militarily confront American troops “at any moment” if Washington decides to keep a long-term military footprint in Iraq.
Rouhani rules out nuclear deal renegotiation, missile talks
Iran will not negotiate with America and European countries over its ballistic missile program, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said at a press conference in Tehran today. “We will not negotiate about our defense and missiles,” he emphasized, adding that Tehran will continue to boost its defense power by producing more planes, missiles and submarines. Rouhani also ruled out renegotiation of the 2015 nuclear agreement with the West. “Nothing will be added or subtracted from the JCPOA.
Iran’s Defense Ministry today unveiled a new propulsion system for military speedboats, Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, reported. “The maritime propulsion system, which allows military speedboats to reach higher velocities, leads to lower fuel consumption, and increases maneuverability in shallow waters, is also equipped with automatic running systems,” Brigadier General Qassem Taqizadeh, the deputy minister, pointed out. The system has a mobile shaft for transmission of power as high as 1,800 horsepower.
Afghan intelligence chief warns Iran and Russia against aiding Taliban
The head of Afghanistan National Directorate of Security (NDS) has said that Iran and Russia are in contact with the Taliban and are supporting the militant group in Afghanistan. In an interview with the BBC Persian, Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai pointed out that Tehran and Moscow provide assistance to the Taliban under the pretext of fighting the Islamic State, which has gained a foothold in South Asia in recent years.
Iran-backed Yemeni rebels fire another missile into Saudi Arabia
The Houthi rebels, Iran’s allies in Yemen, today launched another missile attack into Saudi Arabia, targeting an air defense operations center in the kingdom’s border province of Najran, Iranian and Lebanese media outlets reported.
Iran set to launch four new satellites despite international concerns
Iran’s minister of communication and information technology has said that the country is making the final preparations for the launch of four satellites into space, Mehr News Agency reported.
Iran’s militia allies gearing up for Iraq’s parliamentary elections
Iraj Masjedi, Tehran’s ambassador to Baghdad, met with Ammar al-Hakim, the leader of Iraq’s National Alliance, to discuss the latest security and political developments in Iraq.
Khamenei’s aide: Iran will boost its missile power, continue support for Hezbollah and Hamas
A senior aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said that the Islamic Republic will not accept any European or American proposals to curb the country’s controversial missile program,
Iran dispatches flotilla of warships to international waters
A flotilla of the Iranian Navy warships has left the country’s southern port of Bandar Abbas to conduct “routine missions” and project power in international waters, particularly in the Gulf of Aden the Iranian media reported. The Navy’s 50th fleet comprises Shaheed Naqdi and Bayandor destroyers and a logostic combat warship called Tonb.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
