This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
In February 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that shifting international dynamics could push Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. That rhetoric, combined with Turkey’s civilian nuclear energy and research programs and its indigenous surface-to-surface missile development projects, has fueled concerns that these capabilities could eventually form the backbone of a Turkish nuclear weapons program.
When the US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, it set in motion a chain of events that saw violence spread across the Middle East. Yet as the region found itself engulfed in conflict, Syria has experienced its most peaceful months in 15 years, and the government in Damascus appears determined to stay its course toward recovery.
Russian diplomacy in Syria bolstered by Muslim minority outreach
Russia’s military intervention and political maneuvering in Syria has garnered a large amount of media coverage. However, Moscow is also conducting a concerted outreach campaign to Syrian citizens and society through a unique resource: its Sunni Muslim North Caucasian regions. In particular, Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov and Grand Mufti of Chechnya Salah-haji Mezhiev have emerged as a key conduit of Russian soft power with regard to Syrian civilian and Islamic figures.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Bilal Y. Saab, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the unrelenting violence in Syria, President Trump’s “Buy American” plan, the Taliban’s anti-U.S. propaganda, and Erdogan’s meeting with the Vatican.
Donald Trump’s promise of “a deal of the century” to end the conflict between Israel and the Arabs is getting legs. After a year of discussions led by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the main elements of the president’s design are coming into view. But it’s not exactly what the Palestinians want to see.
King Abdullah's pragmatism keeps US-Jordan ties on track
Unlike the celebratory reception he received in Israel, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence’s visit to Jordan on Jan. 22 was low-key and short. There was no touring of the kingdom’s historical sites and no interaction with the Jordanian parliament. At the popular level, public opinion was mobilized against the visit. On a cold and rainy day, three days before Pence’s arrival, a handful of Jordanians held a protest in front of the U.S.
Few noticed it amid the usual frenzy over something President Donald Trump did, but the United States is now committed to staying in Syria for the long haul—with unforeseen consequences for America’s role in a turbulent and dangerous Middle East.
Iran-backed Iraqi militias may send reinforcements to Syria
The chief commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units has said that the paramilitary forces are ready to go to Syria to fight ISIS and defend Iraq’s borders, Iranian and Lebanese media reported. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy chairman of Hashd al-Shaabi (PMUs), further stressed that his forces will “respond forcefully” to any potential ISIS attack originating from Syria. “We cannot remain passive vis-à-vis the Syrian-Iraqi border and attacks carried out by Daesh [ISIS] in Syria,” he added.
President Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and to relocate the U.S. embassy there was met with Arab and international censure. The United Nations General Assembly voted 128 to 9, with 35 abstentions, for a resolution demanding that the United States rescind this declaration. Human rights groups decry the decision as a death knell for the two-state solution.
Lebanon issues arrest warrant for Iran-backed Iraqi militia commander
Lebanese judicial authorities have issued an arrest warrant for Qais al-Khazali, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia group called Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, Iran’s Fars News Agency reports. Quoting Lebanese sources, Fars added that the Lebanese Army and General Security Directorate have also ordered all relevant authorities to arrest the Iraqi militia commander if he reenters Lebanon. They allege that Khazali last year had entered Lebanon illegally.
January 24, 2018 – Turkey began 2018 embroiled in domestic dissent and diplomatic friction. Last April’s constitutional referendum was met with widespread criticism as an attempt by President Erdogan to consolidate power. Activists and journalists face increasing restrictions on their rights, the government continues its crackdown on the opposition, and debates swirl over the future of Turkey’s economy, the Kurdish question, and relations with the United States and European Union.
