This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
In February 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that shifting international dynamics could push Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. That rhetoric, combined with Turkey’s civilian nuclear energy and research programs and its indigenous surface-to-surface missile development projects, has fueled concerns that these capabilities could eventually form the backbone of a Turkish nuclear weapons program.
When the US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, it set in motion a chain of events that saw violence spread across the Middle East. Yet as the region found itself engulfed in conflict, Syria has experienced its most peaceful months in 15 years, and the government in Damascus appears determined to stay its course toward recovery.
Jared Kushner was on a Middle East mission last week attempting to do what at least half a dozen U.S. emissaries and special presidential envoys have failed to do for more than two decades: putting the peace process on track toward concluding a final settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. But there was a marked change in the U.S. tone, as Kushner, accompanied by Special Envoy for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt and Deputy N.S.A. Adviser Dina Powell, met with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt before heading to Israel and the West Bank.
A Return to Ambiguity in U.S.-Egyptian Relations | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Gerald Feierstein, Randa Slim, Bilal Y. Saab, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including tensions between Washington and Cairo over Egypt’s excessive authoritarian crackdown, Russia’s attempt to help mediate the G.C.C. crisis, the likely postponement of the Kurdish independence referendum, the performance of the Lebanese Army in anti-ISIS operations, and the Iraqi oil minister’s trip to Moscow to discuss oil production cuts.
The Real Reasons behind the Current Turkish-German Row
Relations between Turkey and Germany have become increasingly fraught over the past few months. They hit a new low following the August 19 arrest of Turkish-born German writer Dogan Akhanli in Spain. Akhanli, a frequent critic of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was held by Spanish authorities in connection with criminal proceedings in Turkey. Germany’s foreign minister has urged Spanish officials not to extradite the writer.
A series of high level diplomatic visits have signaled a surprising rapprochement between Iran and Turkey in recent weeks. What’s driving this warming in relations, and how has Russia been involved? What are the potential consequences in the region and for U.S. policy there? MEI’s Gonul Tol and Alex Vatanka join Paul Salem to discuss.
Turkey’s “Three Options” in Idlib amid Growing Tehran-Ankara Cooperation
Turkey has three options to tackle a looming threat to its national security emanating from the situation in Syria’s Idlib Province, according to an an
The Middle East Dialogue, a regional Track 1.5 group in which officials and non-officials from the region and beyond meet to discuss current issues in their personal capacities, met May 12-13 in Malta. Read the full report (PDF).
Monday Briefing | Abbas Hoping for a Commitment from Kushner on MidEast Peace
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Paul Salem, Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the upcoming trip by the U.S. delegation headed by Jared Kushner to Israel/Palestine, Iraq’s anti-ISIS operation in Tal Afar, President Trump’s upcoming announcement on U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan, Iran’s efforts to find a role in China’s One Belt, One Road project, and Turkey’s rocky relations with Germany.
Iran Seeks to Play Major Role in Syria’s Economic Revival, Reconstruction
An Iranian official said on Thursday that his country is ready to meet Syria’s all trade needs and emphasized that Iranian companies are eager to help the war-torn country’s reconstruction.
Pro-Assad Forces and Hezbollah Launching Operation along Syrian-Lebanese Border
The Syrian pro-government forces and the Lebanese Hezbollah are set to launch a joint operation along the Syrian-Lebanese shared border against Islamic State militants, Fars News Agency reported on Friday. Quoting unnamed sources from Syria, Fars, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), added that the Syrian government has sent a large military contingent of the Syrian Army forces and the National Defense Forces personnel to the western part of the Qalamoun Mountains to support the upcoming operation near Lebanon’s border.
U.S. Mobilizing Rebels in Syria’s Northeast to Capture Deir Ezzor, I.R.G.C. Outlet Warns
The U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq is planning on establishing a “ground force” composed of Syrian rebels led by Ahmad al-Jarba, the leader of al-Qad Movement, to “occupy” eastern Syria, warns Fars News Agency, an Iranian outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.).
Diplomatic Moves Signal Possible De-escalation of Regional Conflicts
Do a series of recent diplomatic moves by Saudi Arabia signal an opportunity for de-escalation of regional conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen? MEI scholars Gerald Feierstein, Randa Slim, and Charles Lister join Paul Salem to discuss the dynamics playing out between Riyadh and Tehran as the war against ISIS enters its final phase.
Monday Briefing | Is the Middle East Tilting toward De-Escalation?
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Gonul Tol, Alex Vatanka, and Jonathan M. Winer provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic engagements in the region, Turkey’s consideration of military operations in northern Syria, Iranian President Rouhani’s centrist cabinet nominations, and Libyan leaders’ decision between greater cooperation or renewed confrontation.
