This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
In February 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that shifting international dynamics could push Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. That rhetoric, combined with Turkey’s civilian nuclear energy and research programs and its indigenous surface-to-surface missile development projects, has fueled concerns that these capabilities could eventually form the backbone of a Turkish nuclear weapons program.
When the US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, it set in motion a chain of events that saw violence spread across the Middle East. Yet as the region found itself engulfed in conflict, Syria has experienced its most peaceful months in 15 years, and the government in Damascus appears determined to stay its course toward recovery.
U.S. Absent as Israel-Palestine Violence Escalates | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Eran Etzion, W. Robert Pearson, Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and Randa Slim weigh in on the implications of Israel-Palestinian violence for U.S. foreign policy, Turkish involvement in the Gulf crisis, al-Qaeda’s response to the U.S. decision to terminate support for a program arming anti-Assad Syrian rebels, confrontational U.S. policy towards the Iran nuclear deal, and a former Iraqi Prime Minister’s power play.
Yemenite pop music has seen a resurgence. The band A-Wa (pronounced “ai-wah,” informal Arabic for “yes!”) and their infectious blend of Yemenite folk, electronic, and hip-hop music can be heard all over the world—from Cairo taxi cabs to Dubai pool parties and Parisian nightclubs. The band, whose mission is to elevate Yemenite music on the international stage, is composed of three Israeli sisters of Yemenite heritage.
Reverse Moralism and the Response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis
Non-refoulement is a well-recognized principle of customary international law that forbids the forced deportation of refugees and asylum seekers to their country of origin. This essay discusses the increasingly common practice of refoulement in Jordan and the circumstances in which this development is taking place.
Avi Gabbay, the new leader of Israel’s Labor party, stormed through his first primaries with surprising ease. Fifty-two percent of the 30,000 actual voters decided to crown the new contender, who only joined their party seven months ago. Gabbay, a former minister for environmental protection in Netanyahu’s government and a member of the center-right “Kulanu” (“All of Us”) party, had resigned in May 2016, citing “wrongdoings” in connection with the government’s natural gas policies.
Debt-Ridden and Broke: The Syrian Regime’s Colossal Reconstruction Challenge
As the Syrian civil war—at least from Damascus’s point of view—enters its final stages, the Assad regime will likely begin looking beyond narrow military goals, and focus more on the socio-economic stability and viability of its captured statelet. After six years of war, the Syrian regime finds itself in a disastrous fiscal situation, unable to shift funds to meet humanitarian and stabilization needs.
Mosul Turning Ugly, Raqqa Front Slows | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including the battle for Mosul, corruption in Pakistan, Mahmoud Abbas’s trip to China, and Rouhani’s difficult second presidential term.
Iran’s Islamic Azad University Plans to Open New Branches in Lebanon and Iraq
Iran’s Islamic Azad University (IAU) plans to open new branches in Lebanon and Iraq, according to Ali Akbar Velayati, the head of the university’s board of founders and an influential political figure in the Islamic Republic.
Jordan’s conspicuous silence over the unexpected trilateral rapprochement involving Hamas, Egypt, and former Fatah strongman Mohammad Dahlan does not mean that Amman is not keeping a close eye on recent developments. It is an unusual partnership that brings together once bitter foes, especially in the case of Dahlan and Hamas.
Trump-Putin Meeting a Potential Game Changer for Syria
The long-awaited meeting of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump finally took place on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Hamburg, which came at a time of cool relations between Washington and Moscow.
Despite ongoing tensions, the two powers appeared to embrace a constructive approach to their first meeting, focusing on issues where progress is possible, such as Syria.
Syrian Peace Negotiations at a Standstill | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Lister, and Mabrouka M’Barek provide analysis on the progress of ongoing negotiations over peace in Syria, rising tensions in Idlib province between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Ahrar al-Sham, and Tunisia’s lobbying efforts to ensure continued U.S. aid.
Al-Qaeda Affiliate and Ahrar al-Sham Compete for Control in Idlib
Idlib is currently the site of increasing competition between the two most dominant armed coalitions, the al-Qaeda-linked Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.) and Ahrar al-Sham. The province has witnessed limited airstrikes since a de-escalation agreement, which came into effect on May 5, was brokered by Russia, Turkey, and Iran at the Astana talks. Idlib was one of four areas labeled as a de-escalation zone.
Iran Steps up Efforts to Oust U.S. Military from Middle East
With the Islamic State collapsing in Iraq and losing ground in Syria, Iran and its regional proxies see the United States as the primary threat to their influence and ambitions and have stepped up efforts to oust the U.S. military from the region. Through diplomatic outreach – and at times veiled threats – Iranian leaders have been urging the Afghan and Iraqi governments to expel American forces from their countries. Tehran has also deepened its ties with the Taliban and has reportedly teamed up with Moscow to undermine U.S.-led stabilization efforts in war-torn Afghanistan.
