This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
In February 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that shifting international dynamics could push Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. That rhetoric, combined with Turkey’s civilian nuclear energy and research programs and its indigenous surface-to-surface missile development projects, has fueled concerns that these capabilities could eventually form the backbone of a Turkish nuclear weapons program.
When the US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, it set in motion a chain of events that saw violence spread across the Middle East. Yet as the region found itself engulfed in conflict, Syria has experienced its most peaceful months in 15 years, and the government in Damascus appears determined to stay its course toward recovery.
June 1, 2017 – Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, joins host Gonul Tol for a discussion of the tensions in Turkey’s relations with Europe in the wake of the Turkish referendum and a recent meeting between President Erdogan and E.U. leaders.
U.S.-led Coalition Strikes Pro-Assad Forces near al-Tanf Again
The U.S.-led coalition announced today that it “destroyed additional pro-Syrian regime forces that advanced inside the well-established de-confliction zone in southern Syria.” The U.S.
Israel to Announce Settlement Expansion | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Randa Slim, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Israel’s expected announcement of new settlement expansion, the escalating risk of a clash between U.S.-backed and pro-Iranian forces in southeastern Syria, and Lebanon’s efforts to pass a reformed election law.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias Vow to Seize al-Tanf from U.S. and Its Syrian Allies
After making significant territorial gains in western Mosul and reaching the Syrian border, Iran-backed Iraqi militia forces today announced that they plan to “recapture” the strategic al-Tanf border crossing from the U.S.-backed Syrian opposition groups, the Iranian media reports.
Final Phase of Mosul Battle Begins | Weekly Briefing
In this week’s Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the beginning of the final phase of the battle to retake Mosul, Germany’s consideration for withdrawing troops from Turkey, and Qatar’s fragile relations within the G.C.C.
The election of Emmanuel Macron is certainly bad news for terrorist organizations in the Middle East. At the same time, it is unlikely that France will modify its attitude in regards to larger regional challenges, for instance, the ongoing Syrian civil war, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Iranian-Backed Forces Advancing to Southeast Syria despite U.S. Warning
The U.S. air strike last week targeting Iranian-led forces in southern Syria signaled escalating tension between Washington and Tehran over the six-year conflict in Syria. The U.S. military said it carried out the raid because an Iran-directed convoy was advancing toward a “de-confliction zone” near the al-Tanf region, where the U.S. military is training Syrian opposition forces to fight the Islamic State. The militia forces reportedly did not respond to U.S. warnings. The air strike – the first such action by the U.S.
Monday Briefing: Chances for MidEast Peace Remote under Trump
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Yousef Munayyer, Alex Vatanka, Jonathan M. Winer, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s trip to Israel and the prospects for a peace process, the reelection of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Russia’s planned naval drill off the coast of Libya this week, and the Afghan Taliban’s decision to reject peace talks.
“There are really big problems right now,” a conservative Islamist cleric close to Syria’s armed opposition told me – “al-Qaeda is trying to create a new loyal faction in Idlib, but that’s being prevented by al-Hayat.” As this influential cleric and four other similarly well-connected Islamist opposition figures have described to me in recent days, al-Qaeda’s central leadership is growing increasingly exasperated at its former Syrian affiliate – now named Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (H.T.S.), after a second rebrand in January 2017 – and is now actively seeking to build a rival movement more loyal
Heightening Tension between U.S.-led Coalition and Iran-led Forces in Syria
Just hours before the news of U.S. airstrikes in Syria broke out, Iran’s Fars News Agency (F.N.A.) reported that the Lebanese Hezbollah had dispatched 3,000 fighters near the border-crossing al-Tanf passageway along Syria’s borders with Iraq and Jordan to “thwart the U.S. plots” and take the control of the Palmyra-Baghdad road.
