This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
In February 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that shifting international dynamics could push Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. That rhetoric, combined with Turkey’s civilian nuclear energy and research programs and its indigenous surface-to-surface missile development projects, has fueled concerns that these capabilities could eventually form the backbone of a Turkish nuclear weapons program.
When the US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, it set in motion a chain of events that saw violence spread across the Middle East. Yet as the region found itself engulfed in conflict, Syria has experienced its most peaceful months in 15 years, and the government in Damascus appears determined to stay its course toward recovery.
Iran Recruits and Trains Large Numbers of Afghan and Pakistani Shiites
While much ink has been spilled about how Iran’s involvement in the Syrian civil war has fueled sectarianism and instability in the Arab world, the implications of Iran’s increasing recruitment of Afghan and Pakistani Shiites on security and stability in South Asia have largely been overlooked. Over the past five years, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has recruited, indoctrinated, trained and deployed thousands of Afghan and Pakistani Shiites to fight under its command against Sunni rebel groups across Syria.
Weekly Briefing: Confirmation Hearings, Syria Peace Talks, and OPEC
In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Robert S. Ford, Yousef Munayyer, Eran Etzion, and Ruba Husari provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the ongoing confirmation hearings for key members of the incoming administration’s foreign policy team, the upcoming Syria talks, the recently convened Paris talks on Israel and Palestine, and OPEC’s assessment of its agreement to cap oil output.
Iran Opposes US Participation in Russia-Sponsored Syria Talks
As Russia and Turkey are trying to broaden the scope of the upcoming peace talks on Syria, Tehran says it opposes the inclusion of the United States in the meeting scheduled for next week in Kazakhstan.
Lebanon’s Government Should Lay the Groundwork for Fairer Representation and Accountability
The Lebanese parliamentary electoral system is the worst in the world. It ensures that a small sectarian oligarchy can monopolize control of parliament and state power, and it sets impossible obstacles to the rise of new political parties and alternative leadership. The necessary remedy is to introduce proportional representation, either through the mixed system proposed by the National Electoral Law Commission headed by Fouad Boutros in 2006, or through other variations proposed by a number of groups since then.
Kayhan, a leading newspaper that represents the most hardline of voices inside the Iranian regime, has been raising doubts about Turkish intentions in the Syrian conflict. The reservations the paper expressed come shortly after the late December 2016 Turkish-Russian-Iranian ceasefire deal aimed to kick-start the political process to find a solution to the six-year Syrian war.
Burden or Boon? Turkey’s Tactical Treatment of the Syrian Refugee Crisis
Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) approaches the question of refugees much differently than its European counterparts. The latter’s pushing back against burden-sharing measures has led to what can be described as burden-shifting. In contrast, the AKP’s view of Syrian refugees in Turkey is that they are more of a boon than a burden. This essay explores the thinking and the tactics behind Turkey’s approach to dealing with the Syrian refugees challenge.
The current Syrian ceasefire effort of Russia and Turkey is a Russian attempt to impose a final political defeat on the rebels and a Turkish attempt to focus on eliminating the Kurds in Syria militarily and politically. Turkey is also intensely lobbying the new U.S. administration for help. The ceasefire deal rests on the barbarism of Russia and the Assad regime and the feckless response of the West. This is the peace Rome imposed on the prostrate Carthage. The unanimous UNSC vote endorsing the Russian/Turkish proposal enshrines one side’s brutality and the other’s moral vacuum.
Iran Steps up Efforts to Expand Its Influence in Lebanon
On January 6, a high-level Iranian parliamentary delegation visited Beirut and pledged to provide military aid to the Lebanese army. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Iranian Parliament’s Committee for Foreign Policy and National Security, said the Islamic Republic was “determined to arm Lebanon’s army,” but added that the implementation of the plan was contingent upon Beirut’s approval.
Khamenei Defends Increasingly Unpopular Syrian Military Intervention
News Brief: On December 5, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei defended the Islamic Republic’s military intervention in Syria, arguing that the Iranian forces had to neutralize enemy threats in Syria to avoid their infiltration inside Iran’s territory.
News Brief:Mohsen Rezaei, the long-time former head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), has launched a scathing attack on the government of President Hassan Rouhani and its pol
Iran-led Forces Intensify Fighting in Syria despite Truce
The Iranian media reports that a senior general of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has been killed in Syria. According to IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency, Gholamali Gholizadeh was “martyred during fighting with Takfiri terrorists.” Iranian officials and outlets often refer to all Syrian opposition forces as “terrorists.”
Turkey Warns Iran against Breach of Syria Cease-Fire
The Turkish foreign minister has openly urged Iran to “play its role as an underwriter of the ceasefire in Syria.” Mevlut Cavusoglu specifically demanded that Tehran rein in Shiite militiamen and the Lebanese Hezbollah and make them “stop violating” the ceasefire in Syria that was agreed on December28.
Iranian media has reported that Javad Turk-Abadi will be Iran’s next ambassador to Damascus. “Turk-Abadi was chosen by Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and this selection was approved by President Hassan Rouhani,” it was reported.
Senior Iranian Delegation Visits Damascus for Talks
Iran’s Fars News Agency reports that a high-level Iranian parliamentary delegation left Tehran for Damascus on January 3 to hold meetings with senior Syrian officials. The chairman of Iranian Parliament’s Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, heads the delegation.
