This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
In February 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that shifting international dynamics could push Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. That rhetoric, combined with Turkey’s civilian nuclear energy and research programs and its indigenous surface-to-surface missile development projects, has fueled concerns that these capabilities could eventually form the backbone of a Turkish nuclear weapons program.
When the US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, it set in motion a chain of events that saw violence spread across the Middle East. Yet as the region found itself engulfed in conflict, Syria has experienced its most peaceful months in 15 years, and the government in Damascus appears determined to stay its course toward recovery.
Turkey’s ideologically inspired foreign policy is shifting to concentrate more directly on bolstering domestic nationalist support and highlight its regional religious identity. Ankara seeks to divert attention from its policy setbacks in Syria, as well as its internal and economic problems, while continuing to blunt U.S. efforts to crush ISIS.
The Syrian Refugee Emergency: Implications for State Security and the International Humanitarian System
This essay depicts the Syrian refugee crisis as a symptom of the disorder which currently exists in the international system, describes the distinctive characteristics of the Syrian exodus, discusses the security implications of the crisis, and proposes four forms of international cooperation to safeguard the welfare of Syria’s refugees and to prevent the emergency from generating further upheaval in the Middle East.
The United States has been pushing Turkey for a campaign to eject ISIS from a 60-mile stretch of border that it still controls between the Syrian towns of Jarabulus and Azaz. However, the joint U.S.-Turkey operation has faced several roadblocks. From the outset, the United States and Turkey have had different goals. Washington wants Ankara to close the border, which is the sole remaining crossing point for ISIS militants.
Monday Briefing: Syrian Peace Talks, Yemen's Cease-fire, and Saudi Regional Diplomacy
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Schmitz, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the next round of Syrian peace talks, the cease-fire in Yemen and the negotiations ahead, and Saudi King Salman’s visits to Egypt and Turkey.
“The ‘Islamic State’ Rocked Crusader Europe Again. Hundreds of Deaths and Injuries as a Result of Martyrdom Operations in Brussels,” read the headline of the Islamic State’s (ISIS) Arabic-language newsletter al-Naba’ on March 21, 2016. There were not much details about the terrorist bombings, but they certainly follow a pattern established since early 2015. “Do not look for specific targets. Kill anybody,” said Boubaker Hakim, an ISIS commander of French-Tunisian origins, in an interview initially published in March 2015 by ISIS’ French-language magazine Dar al-Islam.
Monday Briefing: Erdogan's Failed Washington Trip, Iraq's Cabinet Reshuffle, and Other Key Issues in Week Ahead
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Charles Lister, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent events including Turkish President Erdogan’s visit to Washington, the reshuffling of Iraq’s cabinet, King Salman’s forthcoming visit to Egypt, and the latest attempts by Jabhat al-Nusra over the weekend to disrupt the Syrian political process.
Monday Briefing: Palmyra, Mosul, and the ISIS Threat Abroad
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Paul Salem, and Daniel Serwer provide analysis on recent events including the capture of Palmyra by Syrian government forces, preparations for the campaign to retake Mosul, the risk of further terrorist attacks in Europe like last week’s in Brussels. Allen Keiswetter also responds to recent comments by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia.
Turkey and the European Union have reached what they have labelled an “historic” agreement. The Europeans believe they have papered over an expanding and divisive refugee problem, while the Turks think they have a wider door for E.U. membership. The Europeans, however, have no intention of bringing Turkey into its fold anytime soon as it would dramatically accelerate the growth of its rightwing parties. Neither do the Turks have a genuine interest in solving Europe’s refugee crisis, since the crisis itself is Turkey’s leverage to gain concessions from Europe.
