The Far Reach of the Iran War: Food Insecurity from North Africa to the Sahel
Within weeks of the Strait of Hormuz closure, fertilizer prices began to rise sharply. Tanker traffic through the strait, which handles one-third of the global fertilizer trade, fell by 90%. Across North Africa the impacts are multiplying, and this is having ripple effects for the Sahel in the south, adding to food price inflation, migration pressures, and the erosion of state legitimacy. The situation underscores how food security is a governance issue compounded by geopolitical crisis.
The Abraham Accords have represented a remarkable shift in U.S. Middle East policy. They reframed Arab-Israeli normalization as a result of shared interests – within the Middle East and directly with the US, rather than as a byproduct of Israeli-Palestinian peace. Signed in September 2020, on the last leg of the first Trump administration, the Accords brokered by Washington normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, followed by framework agreements with Morocco and Sudan. From the American perspective, the Accords were intended to break decades of diplomatic stagnation in the Middle East in order to establish a regional framework aligned with American strategic objectives.
في 31 أكتوبر، أصدر مجلس الأمن التابع للأمم المتحدة قرارًا يركز على خطة الحكم الذاتي المغربية كأساس لحل نزاع الصحراء الغربية. يشير تصويت الأمم المتحدة وتعليقات المبعوث الخاص للولايات المتحدة ستيف ويتكوف إلى أن الرئيس دونالد ترامب يريد تحقيق انتصار آخر في مجال السياسة الخارجية تحت عنوان "صنع السلام". لكن الفرصة المتاحة لإدارة ترامب أكبر من مجرد حل قضية الصحراء الغربية. فهي يمكن أن تفتح الباب أمام مصالحة بين المغرب والجزائر من شأنها أن تدمج اقتصاد المغرب العربي الأوسع نطاقاً، وتقلل الهجرة إلى أوروبا، وتوسع التعاون في مجال الطاقة، وتمكن من تنسيق أقوى لمكافحة الإرهاب في منطقة الساحل.
Two years on, what is the state of the Abraham Accords?
Two years after the signing of the Abraham Accords, progress in developing relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors has achieved mixed results, opening up some greater cooperation in the security sphere but failing to change Arab publics’ minds due to the lack of movement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Morocco’s green mobility revolution: The geo-economic factors driving its rise as an electric vehicle manufacturing hub
Rabat’s recent announcement that it would soon sign an agreement for the construction of a “gigafactory” to make electric vehicle (EV) batteries has placed Morocco in pole position to become a green mobility leader in the Middle East and North Africa.
مثل الولايات المتحدة وأوروبا، شهد المغرب بدوره ارتفاعًا في معدلات التضخم مؤخرًا، مسجلة معدلا وصل 6.4 في المائة خلال يوليو 2022، وهو تضخم قادم من الخارج، يسمى ب”التضخم المستورد”. فبفضل سياسته النقدية المتينة، تمكن البلد من إبقاء التضخم عند الحد الأدنى في الماضي، لكن الوضع تغير الآن، كما أن السياسة النقدية المحلية غير قادرة على مواجهة العوامل الخارجية التي أدت إلى الارتفاع الأخير في الأسعار.
Like the U.S. and Europe, Morocco, too, has seen inflation rates rise recently. Morocco was able to keep inflation to a minimum over the past decade, but now things have changed and domestic monetary policy seems unable to address the external factors driving the recent rise.
Germany’s Expanding Partnership with Morocco: Strengthening Supply Chain Resilience is the Driving Factor
The deepening partnership between Germany and Morocco has been driven by the private sector, providing an enduring foundation for cooperation. During the 2021 diplomatic crisis over Berlin’s position toward Rabat’s autonomy plan for the Sahara region, German-Moroccan business-to-business relationships remained largely unaffected. The fraying of global supply chains is bringing now Germany and Morocco into a closer economic partnership. The sudden supply shocks caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine have accelerated that process. In the years just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chains were already shortening as companies and countries in Europe placed greater emphasis on resilience rather than on just-in-time inventories serviced by distant Asian suppliers. This structural transformation meant bringing sourcing and manufacturing closer to European end-markets. The drive to “nearshore” while maintaining a competitive advantage has provided an impetus to German and other international firms to locate manufacturing facilities in Morocco, which has focused on cultivating an appropriate business ecosystem.
أُخُوة يخنقها العداء: التنافس الجزائري المغربي وتحديات الاندماج المغاربي
صَدم وزير الخارجية الجزائري، رمطان لعمامرة، العالم بإعلانه القطع المفاجئ للعلاقات الدبلوماسية بين الجزائر والرباط، بعد ثلاثة عقود من تجاور بارد بين القوتين المغاربيتين. واتهم لعمامرة، في بيان رسمي، تلاه أواخر أغسطس/آب 2021، المغرب بالتخلي عن التزامه بتنظيم استفتاء لتقرير المصير في الصحراء الغربية، من بين ما أسماه “أعمال عدائية ومشينة” أخرى ارتكبها ضد الجزائر.
Brothers at arm’s length: Moroccan-Algerian rivalry and the challenge of Maghrebi integration
In late August 2021, Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ramtane Lamamra, shocked the world by abruptly severing diplomatic relations with Rabat after three decades of a cold modus vivendi between the two Maghrebi powerhouses. In an official statement, Lamamra accused Morocco of abandoning its commitment to organizing a referendum for self-determination in Western Sahara, among other “hostile and despicable acts” against Algeria.
Morocco counters Russia’s weaponization of the food-energy nexus
After 100 days of war in Ukraine on Europe’s eastern flank, a critical new front has opened on Europe’s southern flank with the food crisis in Africa. As Europe faces a two-front, geo-economic war of attrition with Russia, Morocco’s plan to increase its fertilizer output by nearly 70% changes the strategic equation by countering Moscow’s ability to weaponize the food-energy nexus. In so doing, Morocco has demonstrated its increasing importance as a geopolitical partner for Europe and the United States in Sub-Saharan Africa.
What would an Arab-Israeli military alliance mean for Iran?
In recent remarks, the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi announced preparations for a potential upcoming military operation, foreshadowing a possible move against Iran. Kochavi’s announcement came shortly after Israel and the foreign ministers of four Arab nations — Morocco, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain — along with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, met at the Negev Summit in the Israeli desert to lay the foundation for a strategic military alliance to deter “Iran and its associated militias,” as Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid put it.
على مدى العقد الماضي، أحرز المغرب تقدمًا كبيرًا على مستوى مؤشر ممارسة الأعمال العالمي (دوين بيزنس)، حيث قفز من المرتبة 130 في عام 2009 إلى المرتبة 53 في عام 2020. رغم تلك الإصلاحات، لم يؤدي تحسن ترتيب المغرب على مستوى مؤشر مناخ الأعمال إلى تحسن اقتصادي كبير.
The Moroccan economy through the Doing Business Index
Over the past decade, Morocco made great progress in climbing up the global Doing Business Index (DBI), jumping from the rank of 130 in 2009 to 53 in 2020. Yet, Morocco’s improved DBI ranking did not correlate with significant economic improvement.
War in Ukraine and drought at home: A perfect storm in the Maghreb
This year was already expected to pose challenges for Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Inflationary pressures have been driving up the price of goods since the fourth quarter of 2021. Persistent unemployment, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, aggravated social discontent. Now, as winter turns to spring, socio-economic stability in the Maghreb is being imperiled by the conflict in Ukraine and insufficient rainfall at home.
