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Making the right move on Syria … for the wrong reasons
US forces Manbij
  • Analysis
  • Making the right move on Syria … for the wrong reasons

    President Donald Trump is doing the right thing on Syria — removing U.S. forces — but for the wrong reasons. As a consequence, the value and import of his decision will be less than might otherwise be the case.

    January 7, 2019

    Mergers and assassinations as Tripoli remains under militia control
    Tripoli militia
  • Analysis
  • Mergers and assassinations as Tripoli remains under militia control

    On Dec. 18, 2018, the seaport in Libya’s capital was the scene of a surprising yet deft maneuver orchestrated by the city’s four main armed groups, namely the Tripoli Revolutionaries’ Brigade (TRB); Abu Salim’s Special Deterrence Force; the Nawasi Battalion; and the Bab Tajoura Brigade.

    January 4, 2019

    Trump’s Syria decision was essentially correct. Here’s how he can make the most of it.
  • Analysis
  • Trump’s Syria decision was essentially correct. Here’s how he can make the most of it.

    President Trump’s Dec. 23 tweet promising a “slow and highly coordinated” withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria may ease the gnashing of teeth among officials and analysts in Washington, but it won’t end the criticism of his decision. That is precisely why the president should view the hullabaloo that erupted after he announced the Syrian pullout as an opportunity to take a number of steps to make the most of his essentially correct, but widely unpopular, move.

    In Iraqi Kurdistan, there’s more than just tea brewing in the teahouse
    Chaikhana
  • Analysis
  • In Iraqi Kurdistan, there’s more than just tea brewing in the teahouse

    Teahouses are at the heart of Kurdistan’s culture and are linked to the Kurdish collective memory of struggle and oppression, making them a central part of contesting narratives about progress, change, and tradition.

    December 21, 2018

    As Syria looks to rebuild, sanctions remain a major barrier to trade and investment
    Southern outskirts of the Syrian capital of Damascus
  • Analysis
  • As Syria looks to rebuild, sanctions remain a major barrier to trade and investment

    As the conflict in Syria concludes, the next phase will center on rebuilding and will require hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. For now though, sanctions imposed by the U.S., U.K., and EU block money from flowing in.

    December 18, 2018

    October going on December: Voters are still waiting for results in Afghan elections
    IEC scans voter with biometric device
  • Analysis
  • October going on December: Voters are still waiting for results in Afghan elections

    While four million Afghans bravely defied Taliban threats to cast their ballots in parliamentary elections in October, issues with the voting process and the two-month delay in announcing the results are causes for concern, especially with four important elections scheduled for next April.

    December 18, 2018

    Will Turkey attack the US-backed YPG in the eastern Euphrates?
    Turkish flag hangs at border with Syria
  • Analysis
  • Will Turkey attack the US-backed YPG in the eastern Euphrates?

    Whether Erdogan will follow through on his threat of military incursion against the YPG in U.S.-protected areas of Syria depends on the reaction of the international community, the Turkish military, and nationalist voters at home.

    December 14, 2018

    ISIS’s charm offensive toward al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
    Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
  • Analysis
  • ISIS’s charm offensive toward al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb

    A secret letter recently obtained through an inside source sheds light on ISIS’s efforts to persuade an al-Qaeda affiliate to jump ship, abandon its allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahri, and join Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s ranks.

    December 13, 2018

    Is there room for reconciliation on Syria?
    Syrians rebuild their homes in the town of Harasta
  • Analysis
  • Is there room for reconciliation on Syria?

    While non-Arab powers have taken the lead in the Syrian crisis so far, Damascus will need to restore political, economic, and diplomatic ties with regional Arab states as it moves into the phase of postwar reconstruction and development.

    December 12, 2018

    Would Turkey benefit if the US withdraws from Syria?
    Armoured vehicles of Turkish and U.S. troops
  • Analysis
  • Would Turkey benefit if the US withdraws from Syria?

    For Turkey, the best solution to its “U.S. problem” might seem like an American withdrawal from Syria, but such a move could create new and potentially more complicated problems for Ankara.

    Syria's Republican Guard: Growth and fragmentation
    Republican Guard fighters
  • Analysis
  • Syria's Republican Guard: Growth and fragmentation

    The Syrian Republican Guard (RG) has served as the backbone of the regime’s fighting forces since protests first broke out across the country in 2011.This report uses publicly available Facebook posts to piece together the history of the five regiments, six brigades, and 46 battalions identified as now belonging to the RG. Featuring an order of battle, command structure, and battalion commander profiles, this report stands as the most comprehensive record of the RG to date.

    December 11, 2018

    New OPEC+ deal shows Saudis’ oil-market grip continues to slip
    5th OPEC meeting
  • Analysis
  • New OPEC+ deal shows Saudis’ oil-market grip continues to slip

    While OPEC and Russia-led non-OPEC members agreed to cut oil production last week by 1.2 million bpd, Riyadh’s ability to control the cartel and global oil prices is waning.

    December 11, 2018