Origins of the Libyan Conflict and Options for Its Resolution
Muammar Gaddafi controlled all power in Libya for 42 years before the 2011 uprising. Since then, Libyans have been unable to rebuild national institutions and restore stability. Despite General Khalifa Hifter’s ongoing attempt in 2019 to conquer Tripoli by military force, Libya’s best chance for progress remains a unified international approach built on near complete alignment among international actors, supporting Libyans convening as a whole to address political, security, and economic issues at the same time.
Monday Briefing: Ships sabotaged in the Gulf amid rising tensions with Iran
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Robert S. Ford, Jonathan M. Winer, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the sabotage this weekend of four ships off the coast of the UAE, the recent escalation of fighting in northwestern Syria, efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Libya, and mounting concerns about Turkey’s economic health.
Monday Briefing: US and key partners on course for conflict over Iran oil waivers
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Randa Slim, Emadeddin Badi, and Robert S. Ford provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the US decision to end Iran oil waivers, the flagging Afghan peace process, Iraq’s evolving regional policy, the status of General Hifter’s offensive in Libya, and Russia’s maneuvering to control the upcoming Syria talks in Astana.
Monday Briefing: New Arab uprisings echo earlier revolts
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Charles Schmitz provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the current uprisings in Algeria and Sudan, General Hifter’s effort to take Tripoli, the hirak protest movement in Algeria, the strategic partnership between Egypt and the U.S., and cracks in the coalition of President Hadi in Yemen.
The fluid and chaotic situation in Libya is confusing and predicting how the ongoing violence in Tripoli will play out and impact the broader trajectory of the civil war is difficult. Nonetheless, Hifter’s campaign appears to be connected to several international and regional developments, the alignment of which seems to have prompted him to determine that this was an opportune time to move forward, dealing a harsh blow to the UN-led peace process.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Robert S. Ford, Marvin G. Weinbaum, James P. Farwell, Emadeddin Badi, Guney Yildiz, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to Baghdad, reconstruction efforts in Syria, the crackdown on militant Islamists in Pakistan, Iran’s cyber attack capabilities, upcoming elections in Libya, Turkish-Egyptian tensions, and Qatar’s $12B loan from bond markets.
General Hifter’s southern strategy and the repercussions of the Fezzan campaign
The Libyan National Army (LNA) loyal to General Khalifa Hifter has launched a military operation to capture the Fezzan region in Libya’s southwest. While the move seems to have garnered significant international and regional support, it is unclear what the implications of this operation may be for the country’s fragile stability and the country’s dialogue-based political process.
The Global and Regional Geopolitics of Civil War in the Middle East
Power dynamics between the major global and regional powers have indirectly influenced the civil wars currently plaguing the Middle East. The distribution of power caused by end of the Cold War facilitated the creation of two opposing camps that later competed for regional primacy in the civil wars of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
If all goes to according to plan, in the coming months Libya will hold a National Conference, an event that could serve as an inflection point for the country and has the potential to right the course of its political trajectory. In order for this to work, however, Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) to Libya Ghassan Salamé must simultaneously plan for both the conference and its aftermath, capitalizing on America’s increasing, behind-the-scenes involvement in Libya.
Arab Gulf states silent on China’s Xinjiang crackdown
Unlike other cases of repression against Muslims around the world, such as Myanmar, the Gulf monarchies have been silent about the “cultural cleansing” taking place in China’s Xinjiang Province.
Mergers and assassinations as Tripoli remains under militia control
On Dec. 18, 2018, the seaport in Libya’s capital was the scene of a surprising yet deft maneuver orchestrated by the city’s four main armed groups, namely the Tripoli Revolutionaries’ Brigade (TRB); Abu Salim’s Special Deterrence Force; the Nawasi Battalion; and the Bab Tajoura Brigade.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, and F. Gregory Gause, head of the Department of International Affairs at Texas A&M University, join host Jerry Feierstein to discuss the state of GCC relations amid the Qatar dispute and other crises heading into the next GCC Summit.
The GCC Riyadh summit: Beginning of the end of the Qatar crisis?
The upcoming GCC summit in Saudi Arabia offers an opportunity to bring the opposing sides to the table, but it is far from clear what will come out of the meeting
