A reflection on the state of conflict and political change in the Levant by Middle East Institute’s Vice President for International Engagement.
Expert regional analysis by MEI scholars and contributors.
The Middle East teeters on the precipice of a substantial escalation, threatening to more fully draw in Lebanon, Iran, and perhaps other countries. What happens in the coming days, along with the decisions made by adversaries and allies alike, will determine if that happens.
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack touched off a destructive war with Israel and a limited but fierce regional conflagration between Israel and the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance,” with Lebanese Hezbollah at the forefront. The ongoing conflict has been multi-fronted, multi-faceted, dynamic, and already highly consequential. While a clear bottom line remains elusive, exploring the war’s primary origins and evolution offers useful indicators.
As the Middle East becomes more autonomous and empowered domestically, the leaders in the region might consider more synergetic relations with each other and prepare national long-term plans that provide a balanced and integrated approach to social, technological, environmental, economic, and political development and progress.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Afghanistan has long been an arena for proxy contestations by regional powers, which have adopted rather divergent Afghan policies over the past several decades of foreign occupation and are doing so again now when the country is in the vicelike grip of a resurgent Taliban.
On July 21, 2024, Iraq inaugurated a new power line connecting Turkey and Iraq to handle Turkish electricity imports. Iraq is operationalizing this new power line with the goal of ensuring a more stable energy future, reshaping its geopolitical relationships, and reducing its reliance on Iran.
In a new special briefing, scholars from across MEI weigh in with their thoughts on the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the potential regional impact.
On July 16, the United States and Saudi Arabia announced a new framework for space collaboration and civil aeronautics that shakes up the space race. The agreement marks a turning point for the US-Saudi Arabia bilateral relationship, gearing it more toward scientific cooperation and demonstrating the pivotal role that emerging space powers, particularly in the Middle East, are poised to play in the Second Space Age.
Although Russia and China are in regular dialogue with the Houthis, the motivations that undergird the engagements of both countries differ markedly. The Houthis regard both Russia and China as partners against American unilateralism but have a warmer relationship with Moscow.
China’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis should be viewed within the broader context of its evolving approach to humanitarian aid and its overall involvement and objectives in the Syrian conflict.
In reaction to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, the Biden administration articulated six main objectives. After nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has repeatedly threatened to spill out into neighboring theaters, the Biden administration’s success toward achieving these goals has mostly declined, not for a lack of effort but rather a reflection of considerable challenges in the environment and major shortcomings in policy conceptualization and implementation.
The conventional wisdom is that Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is yet another bit of window dressing put up by the “deep state” in Tehran, which effectively calls the shots on the most contentious foreign policy files. But it might just be that Pezeshkian’s sudden emergence as president was orchestrated from the outset as a pretext for the Iranian regime to change course.
The Houthis’ strategy of escalation has the potential to upset the fragile balance of power in the Middle East and underlines the ability of smaller actors to influence larger geopolitical outcomes through calculated risks and alliances.