Research & Commentary Results

تمكنت قوات سوريا الديمقراطية في الثامن من أيلول/سبتمبر، من الدخول إلى قرى وبلدات ريف ديرالزور الشرقي الممتد من بلدة الطيانة حتى الباغوز، بذلك أعادة السيطرة على جميع المناطق التي شهدت حالة تمرد ضد قواتها، التي بدأت في السابع والعشرين من شهر آب/ أغسطس الماضي.

Russia’s malign behavior in the Black Sea includes piracy, plunder, petroleum price cap violations, and actions to prevent the free transit of foreign commercial and naval vessels. Its largely unchallenged position in the Black Sea also helps Russia maintain access to foreign-made products and components, circumventing sanctions. The West and the broader international community have yet to act to decisively rein in these flagrant violations of international laws and norms.

Years of simmering tensions between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and local populations in northeast Syria have exploded this week into still-expanding battles across much of Deir ez-Zor. Conflict resolution requires the international coalition to engage with the Kurdish administration on deep political and administrative reforms. However, the violence in Deir ez-Zor may demand a more creative and locally driven approach to the northeast to foster a more resilient governance and security structure.

Last week saw a flurry of diplomatic activity between Baghdad and Ankara. The top priorities in the talks were oil exports, the presence of the PKK in Iraq, and Iraq’s water crisis. The outcomes have been unimpressive, but there is an opportunity for Iraq to shake things up and improve its bargaining position, at least on the oil export issue, possibly more.

نظرًا لوجود مجموعة فاغنر العسكرية الراسخ في سوريا وليبيا والسودان، فإن القضاء على قيادتها العليا سيكون له تداعيات خطيرة على نفوذ روسيا في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا. من غير المرجح أن يغادر المتعاقدون العسكريون التابعون لفاغنر، لأنهم يحرسون منشآت نفطية وتعدينية ذات قيمة استراتيجية؛ ولكن من المرجح أن يتم دمجهم بسرعة في القوات المسلحة الروسية النظامية.

The SDF has always been a diverse coalition of localized actors. Over the past eight years, it has managed to contain these persistent frictions, but that may now be coming to an end. In the past three days, at least 50 people have been killed in fighting between Arab tribal fighters and the SDF in the region where Syria’s Khabur and Euphrates rivers meet. The catalyst for this fighting occurred late on Aug. 27, when Ahmed al-Khubayl, the leader of the SDF’s Deir ez-Zor Military Council, was lured north to Hasakah for a purported meeting, only to be arrested alongside his brother and four other commanders.

Turkey and Egypt, two influential regional players with a complex history of cooperation and conflict, are now working on mending their ruptured ties. As officials navigate this process, it is essential to identify practical steps to capitalize on the diplomatic breakthrough. Sustainable peace can only be ensured by shifting the focus from political ideology to shared interests. One way to do that is by creating an inclusive, multi-track process that involves state institutions, businesses, NGOs, academics, and the grassroots.

The recent military coup in Niger marks the point of no return for the unraveling of France’s dominant economic and military influence across West Africa. Turkey is the foreign actor that stands to benefit most, with the potential to emerge as a leading strategic partner for the nations of the region. Turkey’s engagement with West Africa is a unique, dual approach that blends military and economic engagement while deftly intertwining humanitarian aid and cultural outreach.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

Gender-blind development policies leave women and girls behind and exacerbate their vulnerabilities before, during, and after disasters, as was made clear by the Feb. 6, 2023 earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria. By viewing disasters as gendered development problems, we can better understand the differential impact the Feb. 6 earthquake had on women and girls in Turkey and make more impactful policy recommendations.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

There are currently over 5.34 million Syrian refugees dispersed in camps, collective shelters, and poor neighborhoods across Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt. Many make desperate attempts to find refuge in Europe. Instead of adopting repressive measures and discriminating against these individuals, the U.S. and European countries should work with regional partners and non-governmental organizations to limit the danger to refugees and IDPs.

Syria’s dramatic readmission into the Arab League in May was perceived as a turning point for the country’s fortunes. Although Damascus may have come in from the cold diplomatically, there has been little change on the economic front, where the situation remains dire. Since the start of May, the Syrian pound has lost over 70% of its value and shows no sign of stabilizing.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

It has been two months since Turkey’s new economic team took over and some progress has been made. Market normalization has begun and the risk of a balance-of-payments crisis has been reduced. At the same time, however, inflation is gaining new momentum, the budget deficit is sharply worsening, and no reform agenda has yet been announced to tackle these threats.