Ukraine’s critical minerals and Europe’s energy transition: A motivation for Russian aggression?
Russia’s war launched on February 24, 2022, may have partly been motivated by Ukraine’s large reserves of critical metals and their global strategic importance in the production of advanced “green” energy technologies. The cutoff of access to Ukrainian sources, combined with the nature of the partnership between Moscow and Beijing — with China being the largest supplier of the necessary critical minerals — could endanger the very notion of the West’s energy transition.
Opinion: War in Europe, famine in Africa . . . Why we must defeat Russian imperialism now
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is about more than Ukraine. It’s about frontline states in Europe’s east that fear they’re next; it’s about Europe whole and free.
The war in Ukraine: A test for Algiers’ non-alignment doctrine
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February could have unprecedented consequences for North Africa. Algeria will be swept up in the resulting shifts, forcing the country’s civilian and military leadership to make difficult international calculations.
Overshadowed by war in Ukraine, Armenia and Azerbaijan edge closer to a peace deal
Armenia and Azerbaijan, two long-standing adversaries in the South Caucasus, are edging closer to a peace deal that could potentially alter regional geopolitics. The prospective reconciliation also coincides with a nascent rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey. Yet there are significant constraints too, in terms of both wider geopolitics and domestic Armenian politics, that could hinder the process.
Staying the course … for now: Germany’s MENA policy under the Scholz government
After 16 years under Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz’s assumption of Germany’s chancellorship on Dec. 8, 2021 marked a new chapter in the nation’s politics. Within the “traffic light” coalition government formed by the Social Democrats, the Free Democratic Party, and the Greens, Annalena Baerbock heads the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Before taking office, the co-leader of Alliance 90/The Greens was known for both her welcoming attitude toward immigrants and her full-throated condemnation of human rights violations by authoritarian governments. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has no shortage of the latter: According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, 17 out of the 20 countries in the region are “authoritarian” and not one is characterized as a “full democracy.” Beyond human rights, other key MENA policy issues for the new government include Iran, Turkey, ongoing conflicts in the region, and immigration. The challenges are numerous, if well-known, but how will Berlin respond? Is Germany’s policy toward MENA likely to change or remain the same under the new government?
The impact of the war in Ukraine on regional cooperation in the South Caucasus
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus has been unable to find a model for regional cooperation or form regional organizations. The relative calm that followed the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, especially after the signing of the November 2020 cease-fire agreement, renewed hopes that this might change. Significant challenges to regional cooperation remain, however, and Russia’s war with Ukraine has only complicated matters further.
We must stop Russia’s land bridge to Crimea — and destroy the Kerch Strait bridge now
The culmination of the Donbas battle is near. For the first time in this war, the pendulum starts swinging in Russia’s favor. By summer’s end, it’s possible that Moscow will fully secure its land bridge to Crimea. This would have catastrophic consequences.
Crucial Crimea: Why the illegally occupied territory must be returned to Ukraine
After a hesitant beginning, the West has rallied to provide Ukraine the military assistance it needs to check Russian aggression. Longer-range rocket systems should be part of a comprehensive strategy.
Trying to save Russia from humiliation is not the right way to end the war in Ukraine
It is time for Western leaders to deal with Russia as it is and not as they want it to be. There is no room for them to back down now, as it will simply increase Putin’s appetite. The cost of providing a face-saving exit to Putin is much higher than that of his ultimate humiliation on the battlefield.
The impact of the war in Ukraine on Russian-Turkish relations and Black Sea security: Three potential scenarios
As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, where things go from here is far from certain, but it is worth considering the range of possibilities. These three scenarios highlight the potential challenges and opportunities that Putin, Erdoğan, and, to a lesser degree, Zelenskyy may face depending on how the conflict plays out, as well as what is at stake for other countries in the Black Sea region.
Russia is violating the spirit of Montreux by using civilian ships for war
On Feb. 28, Turkey triggered the Montreux Convention, not used since World War II, and closed the Turkish Straits to military ships. This one move interrupted Russia’s maritime logistical supply line to Syria, interfered with its ability to rotate naval assets in the Mediterranean, and prevented Moscow from bringing additional warships to the Black Sea. Russia can no longer supply its Syria operation or deliver defense exports to its customers using navy ships. However, close observation of traffic through the Turkish Straits reveals that Russia is continuing its naval operations in the Mediterranean and Black seas.
