Research & Commentary Results

In January 2023, the United States began to reroute $72 million of assistance to Lebanon to support the salaries of Lebanese soldiers and police officers, most of whom could barely make ends meet due to the disastrous economic situation in the country. It took Washington more than two years to make that decision, partly because US laws regarding this type of aid were slightly unclear. But more importantly, the voices inside and outside the US government who argued against further support to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), let alone direct cash assistance, succeeded in delaying the process. This was yet another example of how, despite continued US commitment to the LAF through successive administrations, the US military assistance program remains vulnerable to US domestic politics.https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-government-lebanon-bu…

As Women’s History Month in the U.S. draws to a close, women in the armed forces of several Middle Eastern countries continue to achieve historic milestones, with many now serving as pilots, engineers, peacekeepers, and in special forces units. The role of women is steadily increasing as the result of new initiatives, policies, and gradually changing mindsets in the Middle East.

Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: The HDP takes sides without taking sides, the dark horse candidate Muharrem İnce, and the AKP’s “People’s Alliance” coalition.

In response to Lebanon’s seemingly imminent transition into a failed state, this article introduces a new framework to explain the country’s protracted crisis. In turn, we unpack what the past four years of international responses to Lebanon got wrong and make the case for a new assertive approach for Washington to take — one that empowers local stakeholders working to recapture the state and reform the country’s political economy.

MEI’s US-Lebanon Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar speaks to Beirut-based international finance professional Mike Azar (@AzarsTweets) on Lebanon’s financial crisis. What is the state of Lebanon’s banking system, and how did it become so dysfunctional? What does Azar recommend to get Lebanon’s economy back on track, and can the Lira be saved? 

The earthquake seems to have damaged the charismatic populist’s image. And voters may finally be ready for an uncharismatic man who promises to put things in order.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

Turkey has suffered severely from the two major earthquakes on Feb. 6, 2023. The death toll is a record high, exceeding 45,000. Physical damage from the earthquakes will cost at least $20 billion. GDP growth will be 2.0-2.5% less than forecast before the disaster, adding nearly $20 billion. The combined economic losses due to damaged assets and slower growth expectations may end up being much higher than $40 billion when the government releases a detailed and reliable disaster loss report covering human resources.

As fighting rages on in Ukraine, crucial submarine communication cables in the Black Sea could be in danger of disruption. Not only have risks of accidents grown with the increase in regional naval activity, but deliberate attacks on these cables follow the Kremlin’s modus operandi of targeting critical infrastructure below the threshold of war. Black Sea states need to more resolutely protect submarine cables, either within the format of NATO or novel regional frameworks.

Western pundits often admire autocrats for getting things done. Turkey shows why they’re wrong.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

The difficulty of quickly providing mechanized and armored equipment to Ukraine, training Ukraine to employ this equipment in combined arms operations, and ensuring Ukraine can maintain and sustain combat power should not be underestimated. As the examples of Turkey’s 2016 military operation in Syria and the U.S. operation in Fallujah in 2004 illustrate, dislodging Russia from its prepared defensive positions will be a daunting task for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

As researcher Dilek Türközü noted, “Geography is destiny, but negligence is a choice.” There was no avoiding tragedy; earthquakes are common in Turkey and the next “big one” is always somewhere on the horizon. The earthquake that shook Turkey and Syria this past week was shocking in its scale; but it was a danger that everyone knew was coming. Unfortunately, Ankara’s response continues to be undermined by its own focus on political loyalty and its lack of tolerance for criticism.

After a difficult year, things finally seemed to be looking up for Turkey’s beleaguered economy in early 2023. But then on Feb. 6 the worst happened: Turkey and Syria were hit by a pair of massive earthquakes, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and untold damage. How did Turkey’s economy stabilize in second-half 2022, what do we know about the economic impact of the earthquakes, and where might things be headed going forward?