Research & Commentary Results

Close observers of policy trends in the GCC will notice that digital transformation and data governance are becoming vital issues in the region. Over the last decade, Gulf countries have introduced ambitious plans to digitally transform their public and private sectors, with the goal of providing reliable, rapid, and efficient public and private services.

On Feb. 9, 2021, the UAE made history when its Hope Probe reached Mars and communicated back to Earth. This made it just the sixth member of the elite group of countries that have reached the Red Planet, and the first Arab nation to do so. The UAE stressed that the Mars mission is a success for all Arabs and this significant scientific feat positions Abu Dhabi not just as a leader in the Middle East, but also as an important global player in space.

“بينما تعد ندرة المياه في إيران وبقية دول الشرق الأوسط مشكلة طويلة الأمد، فإن بعض الجهود للتعامل معها تبدو محاولات يائسة ولم يتم التخطيط لها دائمًا بعناية”.

Recent moves by Chinese tech giants have raised concerns in Washington about Beijing’s technological outreach to developing nations. To stem the international growth of these companies, the U.S. has discouraged countries from adopting Chinese technologies through efforts like promoting the Clean Network Initiative. Countries across the globe often must choose between Chinese or Western technology, and these choices have broad implications.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

The issue of access to water is of particular relevance in the Middle East and North Africa, the world’s most water-scarce region.

Iran and Iraq are frequently at odds over water issues. Iraq depends on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for nearly all of its water. But Iran is building dams to redivert some of that water, causing alarm and creating major water shortages for Iraq.

Despite the importance of cyberattacks, little has been written about the relationship between these attacks and the applicable law. States are still struggling with controversies involving definitions, even though there is wide applicability of both laws and norms in this context. As a result, cyberspace remains relatively anarchic and the continued controversies have impeded further progress. Although the global discussion has only just begun, it is clear that the rising prevalence of state-led cyber operations warrants a thoughtful, innovative, and immediate regulatory response. Pressure has been building on the governments of the Middle East to join the conversation as their relevance and power in the cyber domain grows.

​​​​​​​Cyber violence against women is defined as a form of gender-based violence (GBV) carried out through digital means. The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically heightened the risk and incidence of violence against women both online and offline: the Australian eSafety Commissioner reported a 50% increase in domestic and cyber violence reports since March 2020. Globally, Facebook remains the most common platform for gendered violence online, followed closely by Instagram and WhatsApp. These developments show that special consideration must be given to the role of digital platforms in facilitating violence against women, and that policy solutions regarding violence against women must also consider the online context where that violence often takes place and escalates in plain sight. 

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

To promote stability in the Middle East and safeguard its interests, the new administration should adopt policies designed to limit damaging activities in cyberspace, support cyber norms in conjunction with strong cooperation agreements, recognize the obstacles to creating a NATO-like regional security alliance, and implement policies restricting the misuse of U.S. technologies by allies to commit human rights violations and spy on their own people.

In a new policy briefing book, entitled The Biden Administration and the Middle East: Policy Recommendations for a Sustainable Way Forward, MEI scholars tackle a large number of country-specific and region-wide issue areas, laying out both the abiding U.S. interests and specific recommendations for Biden administration policies that can further U.S. interests amid a region in turmoil.

On March 4, OPEC+ members agreed to maintain their current production cut levels into April, and the Saudi- and Russia-led cartel’s decision further strengthened the upward trajectory of oil prices. While there were differing opinions among the OPEC+ members regarding the state of the global economy, the group’s unanimous decision reflects Riyadh’s current take on the markets, which is that the health of the world’s economy remains fragile as the recovery from the pandemic continues.

Relations between the U.S. and Black Sea countries are complex. The Western-oriented Georgia and Romania have shown unconditional support for greater U.S. involvement. Others, like Turkey and Russia, will continue to challenge Western involvement. And while relations between Black Sea countries reflect similarly complex cooperation and conflict patterns, common among them is a hope that the Biden Administration will bring a shift in U.S. policy in the region.

Frontier Europe Initiative’s new report, Alternative Futures for the Black Sea Region, is designed to inform the development of a U.S. strategy for the Black Sea region by considering a range of alternative future scenarios.

The following article addresses the question of how the Middle East might develop in the coming decade. Long-term and detailed strategic predictions are a thankless task and are often doomed to failure. Therefore, this article refrains from attempts at prophecy but deals instead with “thinking about the future.” It opens with an analytical framework for scenario development, supplemented by “trends impact” and “horizon scanning.” The second section studies “the futures of the past,” in terms of what we might learn about the pitfalls of future projection and scenario-building from those outlining possible futures for 2020 from years past. Then, on the basis of the first two sections, four scenarios elaborate some distinctly different pathways that the Middle East might take to 2030. Finally, the article concludes with several key takeaways for Israeli decision makers.