Research & Commentary Results

تناقش لي تشين سيم، الباحثة غير المقيمة في برنامج الاقتصاد والطاقة التابع لمعهد الشرق الأوسط (MEI)، نتائج منشورها الأخير بعنوان "تأثير القوى العظمى في الشرق الأوسط: العلاقة بين الصين وروسيا كمضاعف للقوة"، الذي شاركت في تأليفه مع جوناثان فولتون.

Over the past decade, Morocco made great progress in climbing up the global Doing Business Index (DBI), jumping from the rank of 130 in 2009 to 53 in 2020. Yet, Morocco’s improved DBI ranking did not correlate with significant economic improvement.

This year was already expected to pose challenges for Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Inflationary pressures have been driving up the price of goods since the fourth quarter of 2021. Persistent unemployment, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, aggravated social discontent. Now, as winter turns to spring, socio-economic stability in the Maghreb is being imperiled by the conflict in Ukraine and insufficient rainfall at home.

In two months, Lebanon is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in the midst of a continuing economic meltdown and total failure of governance. The outcome of the vote is likely to be disappointing for anyone expecting to elect new leaders capable of reforming Lebanon.

As global attention shifts further away from Afghanistan to Ukraine and elsewhere, time is running out to change course before the country’s freefall under the Taliban becomes irreversible. The international community needs a two-pronged, interlinked approach to normalize the economy and stabilize the political scene.

As Russia’s two-week-old war against Ukraine has brought Lebanon’s wheat imports from the besieged Black Sea nation to a complete standstill, the government in Beirut is racing against the clock to avert a catastrophic food crisis.

While Europe might be ready for more Algerian gas as it looks to diversify its suppliers, Algeria’s current production capacity limits its ability to substantially increase export volumes to Europe. As of now, any meaningful increases in Algerian production will require years of exploration and development and more crucially, further energy industry reforms to attract new investment.

The rapid evolution of the war in Ukraine and its horrendous humanitarian consequences caught many of us by surprise. The effects of the crisis will materially — although heterogeneously — impact MENA economies, and, sadly, can have a compounding negative effect on food security and welfare across the region.

One of the most ambitious elements of China’s Digital Silk Road is the Pakistan & East Africa Connecting Europe (PEACE) fiber-optic cable. China has long expressed its ambition to connect the greater Middle East, Africa, and Europe with Chinese fiber optics in order to expand its presence in the region, and Beijing now boasts strategic infrastructure assets in geopolitical hotspots, such as the Pakistani port of Gwadar.

Although Western countries have managed to limit Moscow’s capacity to export oil, the Arab Gulf monarchies are unlikely to be able to benefit in the near term. This may change in the long run, however.

A week after Russia invaded Ukraine, the economic and political ramifications for Egypt have evolved more rapidly, and comprehensively, than its policymakers would have wished.

With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24, 2022, Egypt’s food security crisis now poses an existential threat to its economy. The fragile state of Egypt’s food security stems from the agricultural sector’s inability to produce enough cereal grains, especially wheat, and oilseeds to meet even half of the country’s domestic demand.

Egypt, like much of MENA, is experiencing an unprecedented digital transformation. Governments throughout the region are embracing emerging technologies, particularly in governance and, increasingly, financial management. Countries across MENA are adopting ICT strategies, such as the ICT Vision 2030 in Egypt. Egypt’s plan aims to develop a knowledge-based society by means of a strong digital economy built on reliable, affordable, and equitable access to digital tools.

Gulf oil and gas exporters might seek to gain market share from Russia and act as a source of energy stability for Europe.

The 25-year strategic cooperation agreement between Iran and China, signed in March 2021, is coming to fruition, sparking debate among Iranians about the potential effects of deepening ties with Beijing.