Research & Commentary Results

مع اشتداد الصراع بين إسرائيل وإيران، تتزايد التحذيرات من أن الحرب قد تؤدي إلى انتشار إشعاعي خطير ومدمر في معظم أنحاء المنطقة. لكن مواقف مختلف الأطراف الفاعلة الرئيسية في الخليج وخارجه فتحت الباب أمام تسوية سياسية أوسع بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران يمكن أن تنهي الأعمال العدائية قبل أن يتحقق مثل هذا السيناريو الخطير.

As the war between Iran and Israel continued, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a speech on June 17, framing the conflict as an “imposed war” and calling for national unity. But instead of using this moment to explore diplomatic off-ramps, particularly as President Donald Trump signaled the possible direct participation of the United States in the war on the side of Israel, Khamenei opted for posturing over negotiation and left the Iranian people even more fearful about the future.

As the world watches and waits to see whether the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates into a wider war and whether the United States gets more directly involved, Americans remain sharply divided and mostly distracted by events closer to home, for now.

President Donald Trump threatens Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But measured language and disciplined policy can help prevent escalation and protect American interests.

Welcome to a special Bonus Episode of Middle East Focus. We’re pleased to bring you access to a recent MEI press briefing on the evolving Israel-Iran conflict, recorded on June 16, 2025. You’ll hear from MEI’s Distinguished Diplomatic Fellows Barbara A. Leaf and Alan Eyre, as well as our Distinguished Military Fellow Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie, Jr., USMC (ret.), who bring decades of firsthand experience working on Iran policy and regional security issues.

The evolving confrontation with Israel and the United States places the Islamic Republic of Iran at a critical inflection point. Tehran faces choices that range from limited negotiation and strategic restraint to escalation and eventual collapse. The following analysis explores the key scenarios that could unfold in the coming days, weeks, and years.

Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to examine the dramatic escalation between Israel and Iran following Israel’s targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, infrastructure, and senior IRGC officials. Vatanka discusses how the Iranian regime is responding, the risk of wider regional conflict, and whether the current campaign could mark the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic.

The past four days have clarified much about what Israel wants from this conflict, what Iran can and cannot do to fight back, and what decisions confront the American president over the next few days.

This episode was originally recorded on June 9, 2025, featuring a wide-ranging conversation with Eyal Hulata—Israel’s former National Security Advisor—about the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, his role in shaping Israeli security policy, and where he believes the conflict is headed.

In light of recent developments between Israel and Iran, we reconnected with Eyal to capture his latest analysis. The first segment of this episode was re-recorded on June 16, 2025, to reflect Eyal’s current views and predictions regarding the unfolding regional developments.

On May 23, President Donald Trump’s administration suspended the majority of sanctions on Syria, marking the most sweeping shift in the policy of the United States toward Damascus in over a decade. But lifting sanctions will not magically make Syria safe for return. For millions of displaced Syrians, their country remains a minefield — literally and bureaucratically.

خبراء معهد الشرق الأوسط يعلقون على الضربات الإسرائيلية على البرنامج النووي الإيراني وعواقبها على المنطقة بأسرها.

Last night, the government of Israel decided to roll the dice on a military solution to Iran’s decades-long pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability. Given the remarkable capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces, the operation could do tremendous damage to the Iranian nuclear program. But then comes the hard part.

MEI Senior Fellow Paul Salem joins the program to assess Lebanon’s rapidly shifting political landscape. With a new president and government promising to enact reforms and reassert sovereignty, Lebanon faces a daunting agenda: disarming Hizballah, rebuilding institutions, navigating regional diplomacy, and restoring the economy.

عندما أصدرت إدارة الرئيس دونالد ترامب في أوائل عام 2025 الأمر التنفيذي رقم 14169، "إعادة تقييم وإعادة تنظيم المساعدات الخارجية للولايات المتحدة"، وطبقته، أدى ذلك فعليًا إلى وقف جميع المساعدات الخارجية الأمريكية تقريبًا. أوقف الأمر في المقام الأول صرف برامج المساعدات غير العسكرية، مما أدى إلى إنهاء مشاريع المساعدة والعقود والتوظيف الممولة من الولايات المتحدة في جميع أنحاء العالم. كان تأثير هذا الإلغاء المفاجئ للمساعدات الخارجية حادًا بشكل خاص على البرامج الإنسانية والإنمائية، مما أدى إلى شل البرامج التي تستهدف المساعدة الغذائية، والحصول على المياه النظيفة، والصحة العامة، والدعم الزراعي.

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Dec. 8, 2024, after the rebel military operation “Deterrence of Aggression” and the establishment of a transitional government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s interim president, quickly began working to form a unified national army, dismantle the existing factions, and centralize all weapons under the authority of the state in an effort to address one of the most pressing challenges facing his administration. While several initial moves have been completed, important steps in this complicated process are still pending. This article highlights the current developments surrounding the formation of the new army, including progress achieved to date and key challenges going forward.