The Global and Regional Geopolitics of Civil War in the Middle East
Power dynamics between the major global and regional powers have indirectly influenced the civil wars currently plaguing the Middle East. The distribution of power caused by end of the Cold War facilitated the creation of two opposing camps that later competed for regional primacy in the civil wars of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
If all goes to according to plan, in the coming months Libya will hold a National Conference, an event that could serve as an inflection point for the country and has the potential to right the course of its political trajectory. In order for this to work, however, Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) to Libya Ghassan Salamé must simultaneously plan for both the conference and its aftermath, capitalizing on America’s increasing, behind-the-scenes involvement in Libya.
Mergers and assassinations as Tripoli remains under militia control
On Dec. 18, 2018, the seaport in Libya’s capital was the scene of a surprising yet deft maneuver orchestrated by the city’s four main armed groups, namely the Tripoli Revolutionaries’ Brigade (TRB); Abu Salim’s Special Deterrence Force; the Nawasi Battalion; and the Bab Tajoura Brigade.
MEI’s Jonathan Winer joins guest host Alistair Taylor to discuss the conditions in Libya nearly eight years after the country’s revolution, from the situation on the ground to the prospects for elections and political settlement more broadly.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the ongoing conflict in Yemen, the potential impact of the midterm elections on US Middle East policy, U.S.-Turkey rapprochement, escalating tensions in northern Syria, the upcoming Palermo conference on Libya, and the potential for political fallout in Pakistan and peace talks in Afghanistan.
The UN’s “Plan B” for Libya needs a security solution, too
The UN has undertaken a series of steps to push Libya beyond the uneasy stability imposed by the militias. Together with Plan B, an economic-military-political package could provide the means to do so.
The most recent EU summit, in June 2018, only proved that the EU’s member states do not share any common long-term perspective on migration from Middle East to Europe. This lack of cohesion, as well as a lack of substantial cooperation with the U.S., are the best recipe for a humanitarian disaster in 2019.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including political turmoil in Libya, the meeting between Turkey and Russia to discuss the fate of Idlib province, and Iran’s attempts to forge new relationships to offset U.S. sanctions.
The jihadist threat is not new to the Maghreb. However, the fallout of the 2011 Arab uprisings has fundamentally altered the political and security environment of North African countries. While states such as Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia witnessed an increase in deaths from jihadist attacks, others like Algeria and Morocco experienced a reduced impact.
The issue for Libya is not whether 75-year-old Gen. Khalifa Hifter returns to normal health following the medical crisis that led to his hospitalization in Paris. No matter what happens to Hifter, the country must find ways to build an inclusive government in which integrated security forces at the national level are under the command of civilian, elected leaders.
The hollow war drums of the Western Sahara conflict
Every year at the end of April, like clockwork, tensions rise between Morocco and the Polisario Front, the group leading the disputed region of Western Sahara’s independence movement. The timing coincides with the U.N. secretary-general’s annual report to the U.N. Security Council on the latest developments in the conflict, which is followed by a vote to renew the peacekeeping mission—known as MINURSO—that has been in place in the territory since 1991.
Monday Briefing: Mohammed bin Salman’s American charm offensive
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Paul Salem, Charles Lister, Jean-François Seznec, and Jonathan M. Winer provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the shaping of U.S.-Saudi relations, Pompeo’s appointment to secretary of state, Turkey’s capture of Afrin, the future of Saudi energy, and Egypt’s efforts to unite the Libyan military.
Sub-Saharan Africa must respect North Africa's water rights
The Middle East is the world’s most arid region and the one most dependent on renewable freshwater resources that originate outside its territories. These resources are largely contained in the Nile, Euphrates-Tigris, and Jordan river basins. An international law-based approach to transboundary watercourse development and management is vital for human security and regional stability. Applying legal principles in the Nile Basin is imperative, as unilateral actions by upstream countries can harm livelihoods on a large scale in downstream countries and destabilize their economies.
