President Erdoğan, as the leader of a middle-sized power strengthening an independent role, wants to enhance the reputation and expand that role for Turkey regionally and globally by achieving a balance of Ukrainian and Russian influence in the region.
While most analyses of the war in Ukraine have tended to focus on the intra-European dimension, it is worth exploring the potential consequences of this conflict for the EU’s relations with countries further afield, especially those in the Middle East and North Africa.
Seven years on from the launch of the Saudi-led coalition’s military campaign on March 26, 2015, the civil war in Yemen remains stalemated. The fundamental realities of the conflict have not changed substantially in over five years. Meanwhile, the conditions under which the majority of innocent Yemenis are living continue to deteriorate. It’s time to consider measures that can promote an end to the conflict and lay the groundwork for post-conflict reconstruction.
The war in Ukraine couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Turkish economy. Amid the country’s ongoing economic crisis, the government has been implementing extraordinary and unconventional monetary and fiscal policies.
When the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates decline phone calls from the president of the United States, rebuff his requests to help lower oil prices, and shy away from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and when the U.A.E. hosts Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in Abu Dhabi, there is no doubt that a major crisis in U.S.-Arab Gulf relations is under way.
As both a candidate and as president, Ebrahim Raisi has repeated a basic mantra: that he will seek to quickly improve relations with Iran’s neighbors, and particularly the Arab Gulf states. But what are his motivations for this and what are the potential hurdles?
The Middle East is experiencing a seismic shift in its geopolitics: the dawn of the era of drones. From Syria to Libya and from Yemen to Iraq, UAVs have altered the dynamics on the battlefield. Agile and affordable, drones aren’t just a menace to remote conflict zones, but also to states far removed from theaters of war.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
Although Western countries have managed to limit Moscow’s capacity to export oil, the Arab Gulf monarchies are unlikely to be able to benefit in the near term. This may change in the long run, however.
تحمل الأزمة في أوكرانيا، من وجهة نظر أنقرة، مخاطر كبيرة، لكنها تنطوي أيضًا على بعض الفرص. إنها ليست أزمة من صنعهم، ولا أزمة رحبوا بها. ومع ذلك، من الواضح أن أنقرة جهَّزت مخططًا أساسيًا لتجاوز العاصفة. من وجهة نظر صانعي السياسة في واشنطن، من المرجح أن تجلب استراتيجيتهم إحباطًا أكثر من تطمينًا.
وفي نفس الوقت، فإن الفهم الأفضل لكيف تأمل تركيا أن تتجاوز الأزمة الأوكرانية يمكن أن يساعد في توضيح بعض النقاشات الجارية داخل واشنطن حول كيفية تصور السياسة الخارجية الجديدة لأنقرة ومكانها داخل حلف الناتو.
اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.
The crisis in Ukraine, from the perspective of Ankara, carries significant risks, but also some opportunity. It is neither a crisis of their own making, nor one that they welcomed; nevertheless, Ankara has clearly developed a basic blueprint for weathering the storm. From the perspective of Washington policymakers, their strategy is likely to hold more frustration than reassurance.
Through the vehicle of defense reform, the Biden administration has an opportunity to engage the Saudis on critical national security matters while safeguarding U.S. strategic interests and honoring American values.
Now, after decades of animosity, Turkey and Armenia are taking steps to normalize ties, and the prospects for restoring relations and reopening the border have never been brighter.
The U.S. is disengaging from the Middle East as it shifts its focus elsewhere, a move widely perceived within the region as a sign of a coming American departure. Many in Israel were concerned that this would strengthen Iran and its influence in the region. Instead, it is Israel that has emerged stronger.