عقب استقالة وزير المالية واستبداله بأحد الموالين للرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان في الثاني من ديسمبر/كانون الأول، واصلت الليرة التركية تراجعها المطرد أمام الدولار، لتصل خسائرها خلال العام إلى قرابة 50٪. من جديد تقع العملة التركية تحت وابل من المضاربات، على غرار الحلقات السابقة في يوليو/تموز 2018 وأكتوبر/تشرين
Following the resignation of the finance minister and his replacement by a loyalist on Dec. 2, the Turkish lira continued its steady decline against the dollar, bringing its losses for the year to nearly 50%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s early cuts to the policy rate since September have resulted in an exodus of foreign capital and a rush in demand for foreign exchange among domestic investors.
The existential challenge of Jordan’s unquenchable thirst
Jordan is facing an existential challenge and it has nothing to do with the deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the war in neighboring Syria, or the threat of militant Islamists. The challenge is climate change, which is responsible for poor rainy seasons over the past few years. The situation has become so bad that in the past few weeks the government admitted that six of the kingdom’s 14 active dams have now completely dried up, exacerbating endemic shortages of water used for drinking, irrigation, and industry.
The 3+3 format in the South Caucasus doesn’t add up
During his recent visit to Tbilisi, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin poured cold water on the idea of American support for a so-called “3+3 format” in the South Caucasus. When asked about the proposal, he said, “I would just say that Russia, which currently occupies 20% of Georgia’s territory, should focus on honoring its 2008 cease-fire commitments before promoting any new discussion platforms.”
A storm brews over the Black Sea: Turkey’s contradictory maritime policy
Turkey’s official policy supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia, and it sells UAVs and ships to Ukraine. Yet, trade continues with the Russian-occupied territories of Abkhazia and Crimea. By allowing this illegal trade, Turkey undermines both its own credibility and its trading partners’ security. Shipped goods not only help connect occupied zones to Russia, but trade also brings hard currency into these zones, which are outside the international banking system.
Turkey finally ratified the Paris Agreement. Why now?
Turkey, like many countries worldwide, has recently faced severe environmental events. Suffering from floods and the worst wildfires in its history in the summer of 2021, the country finally took an important step to tackle climate change, ratifying the Paris Agreement international treaty on climate change on Oct. 6, 2021.
لقاء بايدن في البيت الأبيض مع البطريرك المسكوني يوفر فرصة فريدة
سيزور برثلماوس الأول، البطريرك المسكوني للقسطنطينية والزعيم الروحي لما يقرب من 300 مليون مسيحي أرثوذكسي على مستوى العالم، الولايات المتحدة بين 23 أكتوبر/تشرين الأول و3 نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني. وسيعلن بدء الاحتفال بالذكرى المئوية لتأسيس أبرشية الروم الأرثوذكس بأمريكا في زيارته الأولى للولايات المتحدة الأمريكية منذ 12 عامًا. ستكون المحطة الأولى للبطريرك المسكوني هي واشنطن العاصمة، حيث من المقرر أن يلتقي بالرئيس جو بايدن في البيت الأبيض.
Far from a benefactor, the Turkish government is exploiting Somalia’s fragility
A decade has passed since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan landed in Mogadishu at the height of one of Somalia’s worst famines, announcing grandiose projects like the launch of Turkish Airlines flights to the Somali capital, the remodeling of a hospital, and the opening of the biggest embassy in Africa, all designed to show that Turkey’s mission goes well beyond aid and that Ankara is an alternative to Somalia’s traditional donors. Erdoğan’s historic visit earned him high praise throughout Somalia. Although his trip appeared to be a heartfelt humanitarian mission, in reality it was part of a long-term, strategically planned effort. A decade on, Somalis are starting to realize that Turkey has evolved from friend to foe, trade partner to trade protectionist, state builder to outright spoiler.
Biden’s White House meeting with the Ecumenical Patriarch offers a unique opportunity
Bartholomew I, the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople and spiritual leader of nearly 300 million Orthodox Christians globally, will visit the United States between Oct. 23 and Nov. 3. He will inaugurate the centennial celebration of the founding of the Greek-Orthodox Archdiocese of America in his first U.S. visit in 12 years. The Ecumenical Patriarch’s first stop will be Washington, DC, where he is due to meet with President Joe Biden at the White House. This in-person meeting provides the Biden administration a unique opportunity not only to raise human rights and religious freedom issues in Turkey but also to push back against Russian attempts to undermine the Ecumenical Patriarchate, which the Kremlin sees as a threat and targets with disinformation campaigns.
The perils of personalizing power: Erdoğan’s one-man rule has made him increasingly vulnerable
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan long believed that establishing one-man rule would end all his headaches. Instead, the system he created has only caused him more trouble. So great is Erdoğan’s remorse that he is now said to be thinking of amending the executive presidency to strengthen the role of parliament.
What’s driving Turkey’s early easing of monetary policy?
At its Sept. 23 meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), in a surprise move, cut its policy rate (1-week repo rate) 100 basis points to 18.00%, while headline inflation was 19.25% (currently 19.58%). This is an interesting development as most central banks around the world have just started preparing to implement tighter policies.
Why Washington has provided King Abdullah with political cover to engage the Assad regime
Jordan is going full speed ahead in normalizing relations with the Syrian regime, 10 years after it suspended political and economic ties with its northern neighbor in the wake of the eruption of the Syrian uprising. On Oct. 3, and in the first public contact between Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since 2011, Amman announced that the king had received a call from Assad. Talks focused on bilateral relations and ways to strengthen cooperation. The king stressed Jordan’s support for efforts to back Syrian territorial integrity, sovereignty, and unity. Jordan had allowed the Syrian embassy to remain open in Amman and kept a skeleton staff at its embassy in Damascus.
Power sector reforms are new Lebanese governments’ ultimate test
The formation of a new government in Lebanon — after more than a year of political deadlock and amid an economic crisis of dizzying severity — is a positive development. The scale of Lebanon’s economic challenges, however, requires a new government capable of breaking with its predecessors’ deliberate inaction. It necessitates strong and genuine political leadership, will, and action to tackle the country’s many pressing challenges, especially in its dysfunctional energy sector.
