How have the AANES’s policies contributed to the resurgence of ISIS?
Over two years have passed since the liberation of Baghouz camp in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor Governorate, which was ISIS’s last stronghold in the country. The international coalition and its ally, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), have been attempting to stabilize areas east of the Euphrates to prevent ISIS from making a comeback. The group, however, is still active and carrying out security operations in the region, a trend that has increased dramatically over time, especially in the last two years.
“Death by a thousand cuts”: Syrian refugees face dire conditions as Lebanon unravels
Syrian refugees in Lebanon are now in a state of legal limbo and have been pushed further to the margins of society and into the arms of smugglers and profiteers as they, along with most Lebanese, desperately try to survive in a country described by one of its own political leaders as a sinking ship.
Expert Views: The Biden administration and the Middle East: Reflecting on the first 100 days
At the end of Joe Biden’s first 100 days as president of the United States, where do things stand when it comes to U.S. policy toward the Middle East and North Africa? We asked experts and scholars from across MEI to weigh in with their thoughts on the changes we’ve seen so far, the new challenges that have emerged, and what we know about the administration’s key priorities for the region.
Peacebuilding in the Time of War: Tribal Cease-fire and De-escalation Mechanisms in Yemen
As the current U.N.-led political negotiations between the Yemeni government and the Houthis seem to have hit a dead end, there has been growing interest in exploring the role tribal leaders and local tribes can play in ending Yemen’s conflict. The role of Yemeni tribes, however, remains largely misunderstood, and the authority of tribal leaders and the influence of tribes on national political decision making are often overestimated. This report looks into the possibilities and limitations of tribal mediation on de-escalation and cease-fire. It argues that while the tribes developed relatively effective mechanisms to limit the spread of violence into their areas, there are major limitations to their ability to mediate the national-level and political conflict.
Five months into his job as commander of regime forces in Deir ez-Zor, Maj. Gen. Nizar Khader appears to have skillfully gained control over the diverse tapestry of loyalist forces in the region. Khader’s return to power in the east quickly put an end to the deadly disputes that had plagued the governorate’s security forces for years. He then launched a nearly three-month campaign, coordinated between Syrian, Iranian, and Russian forces, to push ISIS cells back into the province’s hinterlands, securing the crucial highway connecting Deir ez-Zor with Palmyra and Damascus to the west. His success, while impressive, will face its second major test soon as ISIS prepares for a potential Ramadan offensive.
Is Bashar al-Assad really the guardian angel of Syria’s minorities?
Since the start of the current war, Bashar al-Assad, in power since 2000, has consistently sought to promote himself as the protector of Syria’s minorities — be they Christian, Alawi, Shi’i or Druze —from Islamist extremists. Many Western audiences have been seduced by his smart casual look and by his increasingly prominent, beautifully turned-out British wife, Asma. With presidential elections due to take place, under Russian auspices, in the coming months, in which Assad is widely expected to run, his claim demands close scrutiny. What has happened to minorities over the last 10 years of war and how does that compare to their treatment historically inside Syria?
Political risk vs. risk to force: How policy decisions impact risk and capability in partner operations
Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) is the U.S. military’s name for the international intervention to defeat ISIS in Syria and Iraq starting in 2014. While OIR has been a success, it has necessarily been imperfect. Throughout the campaign, cost-benefit calculations made by policymakers led to missed opportunities and possibly a longer conflict. These decisions will have lasting repercussions that could undermine the hard-won victory against ISIS, as well as the ability to partner in future interventions. In particular, the United States mishandled its partner relationships in the war to defeat ISIS. Political considerations apparently won out against supporting and sustaining the SDF, our military partner forces.
For Yemen’s Houthis, the status quo is the key to power
On Monday, March 22, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud, proposed an initiative to end the war in Yemen in an offer that addressed various long-standing issues that the Houthis wanted to resolve, including lifting land and sea restrictions, and allowing fuel and food imports to the Houthi-held port of Hodeidah. The initiative proposed engaging the parties to the conflict to find a comprehensive peace agreement. The problem, however, is that the Houthis have no incentive to accept any peace proposal for the time being because a resolution to Yemen’s war, at least for now, is at odds with their political and military strategy.
The Kin Who Count: Mapping Raqqa’s Tribal Topology
The northern Syrian governorate of Raqqa came to the world’s attention when it fell under the control of ISIS in 2014. Scenes of tribal leaders pledging allegiance to the group, after their governorate fell into its hands, raised many questions about the complex tribal dynamics in the area. Previous analyses of these dynamics have often misunderstood the intricate tribal structure and drawn false links between terrorism and tribalism. This research tool aims to shed light on Raqqa’s tribal structure, making it accessible to everyone interested in understanding the current state of affairs in the governorate.
Ten years ago this week, at the American embassy in Damascus, we heard of the first anti-government protest through a quiet whisper in the diplomatic community. A few young kids had run through the historic Hamadiya market yelling “freedom,” as everyone else in the Syrian capital was glued to their television, watching the Arab Spring unfold in nearby states.
Yemen’s prisoners of war and detainees: Lessons learned from local mediation
Prisoners of war and political and civilian detainees are two of the most important humanitarian issues in Yemen. Local mediation has had impressive results, and local mediators, including women, have become key players in resolving this issue. Experience has shown that to bring an end to the war in Yemen, international mediators need to stop ignoring and excluding local efforts and peace builders. Achieving sustainable peace will not happen without the equal involvement of women leaders and the inclusion of those who had no hand in the war.
A decade on, the Syrian crisis is far from over and the US must step up
As Syrians mark the 10-year anniversary of the 2011 uprising this week, it remains inescapably true that the country’s debilitating crisis is far from over. After a decade of conflict that was initiated and driven by an utterly ruthless regime and reinforced and diplomatically protected by its Russian and Iranian allies, Syria is broken.
