Research & Commentary Results

There is a lot riding on the success of the recent cease-fire agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. NATO’s energy security is now intertwined with the fragile deal. Fueled by Russian arms and military training, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict threatens to shake confidence in Europe’s drive to reduce its energy reliance on Moscow.  

Therefore, this holiday season – dear reader – might I suggest a return to the essentials? The greater Middle East is the birthplace of Christianity, Judaism, and wine. This year, why not return to basics with some Georgian wine at the holiday table? Wine is central to Judeo-Christian rituals. It is a requirement for the Eucharist – as well as for Shabbat and Passover. A more secular property of wine is its ability to encapsulate a sense of place and epitomize the traditions of a culture.

Less widely reported are other offshore discoveries in the Black Sea being made by various regional players, some more overtly than others. Given the not insignificant hurdles posed by limitations of technical capacity, a bounty of market supply, and unresolved conflicts leaving borders and exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in question, many are asking who’s campaigning for new Black Sea gas, and why? And just as importantly, whose national security interests stand best to gain?

We are moving toward a new status-quo in the South Caucasus, with different actors facing different challenges as well as opportunities. Georgia will be impacted by the outcome of the war in multiple ways, and the country will need a strategy to adapt to the new realities, taking into consideration gains and losses of the parties actively involved in the conflict, as well as post-conflict development.

Romania is one of Eastern Europe’s largest countries. It also happens to be — alongside Poland — one of Europe’s most pro-Western electorates. However, results of Sunday’s legislative elections suggest Romania could once again be entering murky political waters.

The Black Sea region is home to some of America’s strongest allies and most vocal advocates of continued Euro-Atlantic cooperation and integration. The Trump Administration’s commitment to the region has led with U.S. support for regional security. It is in America’s national interest to double down on the successes of the Trump Administration’s regional economic engagement strategy, and establish trade and investment initiatives as the forefront of U.S. policy toward the Black Sea region.

Five months after the elimination of Abdel Malek Droukdel, aka Abu Musab Abdel Wadud, the leader of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), by the French army in the Malian city of Talhandak, AQIM appointed a new emir on Nov. 21. His name is Yazid Mebarek, aka Abu Ubayda Yusef al-Annabi, a 51-year-old Algerian and a jihad veteran.

On November 14, the Transadriatic Pipeline (TAP) commenced operation. It is difficult to overstate the significance of this development. The new transit link running from Greece’s border with Turkey all the way to Italy, via a 878-stretch that also crosses Albania and the Adriatic Sea, makes the much-discussed Southern Gas Corridor a reality. It brings an annual 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from the Shah Deniz offshore field in the Caspian to consumers in the EU and the Western Balkans, helps diversify supplies away from Russia, and enhances Azerbaijan’s position on European markets.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Alex Vatanka, Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, and Dr. Marwa Maziad.

The Russian government has spent more than a decade constructing a multilateral security structure for the former Soviet space—the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Yet, despite the occurrence this year of some of the most serious crises in Russia’s neighboring former Soviet republics, the CSTO has been notable for its absence in the Kremlin’s response.

Recent presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova were won by Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), a party advocating for judicial and anti-corruption reform and for rapprochement with the European Union (EU). Sandu becomes the first female president of Europe’s poorest country, securing 57.7 percent of the vote ahead of incumbent Igor Dodon’s 42.2 percent. The result followed an unprecedented election campaign during which verbal violence was widely witnessed.

As governments around the world continue to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, the world must not lose sight of the ongoing threat of returning Islamic State (IS) foreign terrorist fighters from Syria. As foreign fighters and their families scour for places to seek refuge, Malaysia may inadvertently turn out to be an attractive destination given the country’s visa-waiver program; the porousness of the tri-border region of Sabah, Indonesia, and the Philippines; and insider threats. In the past, terrorists have capitalized on these vulnerabilities. Given the country’s susceptibility to being used as a terrorist safe haven and platform for staging trans-border terrorist attacks, Malaysian authorities need to strengthen and improve existing measures aimed at countering terrorist infiltration.

The recent ceasefire agreement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia halted the armed phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict following 45 days of fighting and thousands of military and civilian lives lost on both sides. Russian peacekeepers have already been deployed to the conflict zone to oversee implementation of the agreement. It now remains to be seen whether they will be joined by Turkish counterparts, either in the field or at a joint monitoring center in Azerbaijan. The latter is the first disagreement between Moscow and Ankara over peacekeeping in the region.

When commentators and policymakers discuss Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, the focus is often placed on geo-politics and Black Sea security. This is understandable. While the geo-politics of Crimea are important, one should not overlook the tragedy taking place to many of the people living there. This is especially true with the Crimean Tatar community – an ethnically Turkic and religiously Sunni Islam minority population which has faced decades of religious and political persecution under Russian domination.

Radical Islamist terrorism may largely be out of sight for Americans of late. It must not be out of mind.