There were two parts to the Iraqi prime minister’s request to President Biden on July 26 in their meeting at the White House: end Washington’s combat mission in Iraq but maintain U.S. military assistance there. The first part was aimed mostly at Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s domestic audience; the roughly 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq are there primarily to advise and assist the Iraqi army. But the second part deserves a bit of thought.
Missing the bigger implications of US withdrawal from Afghanistan
As the United States exits from Afghanistan, on the eve of the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, it is important to reflect on the broader and longer-term reverberations of that withdrawal. In examining the withdrawal, peace process, and the recent dynamic of militia building and Taliban control, it’s becoming clear that a different transnational threat to U.S. interests is emerging.
Afghanistan’s neighbors contend with Taliban at their borders
The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is not yet complete, but Afghanistan’s neighbors are already contending with its fallout as they face the immediate spillover of the conflict into their respective territories. The insurgency has reached the borders of all of Afghanistan’s neighbors, who are choosing to both engage the Taliban while also bolstering defensive and deterrent measures to contain the insurgency. While the net loser in all this is the Afghan state, the Taliban may be overplaying their hand. Should they rule most of Afghanistan, they could end up governing an isolated country deprived of the foreign aid it needs to function.
لقاء الرئيس جو بايدن مع رئيس الوزراء العراقي مصطفى الكاظمي يوم الاثنين 26 يوليو/تموز لن يفتح آفاقًا جديدة، لكن الأمريكيين بدلًا من ذلك يحاولون إبراز الجوانب غير العسكرية للعلاقة الثنائية. ففي وزارة الخارجية الأمريكية في نهاية الأسبوع الماضي، قاد وزير الخارجية أنتوني بلينكن ووزير الخارجية العراقي فؤاد حسين فرقًا ناقشت التعاون المستمر في مجالات مثل الصحة العامة، حيث يدعم الأمريكيون جهود بغداد للتعامل مع تفشي فيروس كورونا. كما أعلن بلينكن يوم الجمعة الماضي عن مساعدات إنسانية أخرى بقيمة 155 مليون دولار للعراقيين النازحين داخليًا وكذلك لتجمعات اللاجئين العراقيين في الدول المجاورة.
The United States and Pakistan have had a complex and often disappointing “love-hate” relationship since 1947 — one severely tested during the 20-year U.S.-led intervention in Afghanistan. We believe the time has come for serious policy consideration of whether and how both nations can achieve a more strategically beneficial and sustainable post-intervention relationship between the American and Pakistani governments and their populations
Hezbollah’s Regional Activities in Support of Iran’s Proxy Networks
As a Lebanese actor ideologically tied to Iran, Hezbollah has multiple allegiances and objectives that do not always align symmetrically. Hezbollah’s regional activities are a reflection of the group’s increasingly close alignment with Iran, rather than the interests of the Lebanese state or citizenry. Today, Hezbollah’s regional adventurism is most pronounced in its expeditionary forces deployed in Syria and elsewhere in the region, but no less important are the group’s advanced training regimen for other Shi’a militias aligned with Iran, its expansive illicit financing activities across the region, and its procurement, intelligence, cyber, and disinformation activities. Together, these underscore the scale and scope of the group’s all-in approach to transforming from one of several Lebanese militias into a regional player acting at Iran’s behest.
After Afghanistan: Western militaries and the rise of new strategic threats
The withdrawal from Afghanistan marks the end of a historic chapter. It involves more than just the conclusion of a drawn-out international military engagement in Afghanistan. Rather, it signals the end of a decades-long phase in which Western militaries placed the broader Middle East and the fight against international terrorism at the center of their strategic attention. With competition between the great powers on the rise, Western militaries have realized their current vulnerabilities vis-à-vis near-peer competitors and the need to shift gears.
In a politically significant statement, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has asked the Afghan Taliban to “end the occupation of their brothers’ soil.” This follows a Taliban warning of severe consequences if Turkey were to remain in charge of security at Kabul Airport after the exit of American troops. Erdoğan’s message is likely to be interpreted differently by different stakeholders in the unfolding Afghan tragedy, a situation characterized by escalating violence, political uncertainty, and regional chaos.
Marvin Weinbaum, Husain Haqqani, and Mick Mulroy join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the future of Afghanistan following the imminent US military withdrawal.
The idea for writing this piece came late last Tuesday as feelings ran high — the author’s included — amid scenes of patients’ charred bodies being pulled out from what remained of a burned-out coronavirus isolation ward in Nassiriya. It was originally meant to be a eulogy for those lost to Iraq’s stubborn corruption and chronic mismanagement, but it has since become a eulogy for democracy in Iraq.
At the very least we need to provide our Afghan partners with direct air support
The decision to withdraw the relatively small number of U.S. troops from a supporting role to our Afghan partners to preserve our hard-fought-for gains in Afghanistan was a mistake.
Russia’s “troubleshooting tactics” with the Taliban
As U.S. forces continue to draw down from Afghanistan, the Taliban are rapidly filling the void by occupying large new swaths of territory and key military infrastructure. Last week the movement announced it controlled up to 85% of the country. With hundreds of Afghans, including members of the military, crossing the border to the neighboring former Soviet republics of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, speculation over the potential destabilization of Central Asia is mounting. Many regional governments are looking to Moscow for support and defense.
