Research & Commentary Results

Rebuild Beirut, But Hold the Government to Account

In recent years, the Black Sea has featured high on the radar for US companies looking for alternative locations to do business – in part due to Black Sea countries’ success in creating a favorable business climate and offering flexibility as an adaptable production base. This trend has been exacerbated by global developments such as the US-China trade war and most notably, COVID-19.

Mehmet Öğütçü and Gonul Tol join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the recent announcement of Turkey’s biggest-ever natural gas discovery—the Sakarya field in the Black Sea—and what it might mean for Turkey’s economy, domestic politics, and foreign policy.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, an independent Georgia found itself challenged by the separatist movements backed by the Russian Federation in the Abkhazia and Tskhinvali regions, leading to civil war in the early 1990s.

“God has opened the door to unprecedented wealth for us,” said an enthusiastic Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he announced that Turkey had made its biggest-ever discovery of natural gas on Aug. 21. He promised that gas from the 320-billion-cubic-meter deep-sea find would reach consumers in 2023, but industry experts are skeptical and have raised questions about the feasibility of the discovery.

In one of the interesting turnarounds in recent years, travel flows between the Black Sea region and the Middle East have undergone a silent change. During the past decade, this southward flow of shuttle migrants was replaced by Middle Easterners heading northwards in search of promising business opportunities and alternative holiday destinations.

Tom de Waal, Nicole Grajewski, and Theodore Karasik join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the recent border hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the role that Russia, Turkey, and Iran are playing in the geostrategically important South Caucasus.

In recent weeks, reports of a potential 25-year, $400-billion deal between Iran and China have dominated the conversation about Tehran’s options for freeing itself from the punishing U.S.-imposed sanctions regime on the country. But China is not alone in seeing an embattled Iran as a major geopolitical and commercial opportunity — Russia too has ambitions of strengthening ties with Iran.

For those who study the countries and regions that surround it, the Black Sea is many things — a global trade thoroughfare, a zone of contestation, a cradle of civilizations, and a dying ecosystem. But, curiously, one of the more opaque factors is whether the Black Sea region — the states and polities on its littoral and immediate hinterland — is a region at all.

This week marks the 12th anniversary of Russia’s wonton invasion of Georgia. While the world was fixated on the Summer Olympics in Beijing, an invasion force comprised of hundreds of Russian tanks and armored vehicles passed through the Roki tunnel on the Russian–Georgian border.

The annual Conference of the Parties (COP) was initiated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995 to assess progress made by UN members in dealing with climate change. Some meetings have had practical and measurable outcomes, such as the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. But arguably the most well-known meeting is the 2015 COP21 in Paris, also known as the Paris Agreement.

As Russia partially reopens international travel amidst the ongoing pandemic, Turkey is in the top three countries for resumed Russian flights. Moscow also touts possible space cooperation with Turkey amidst tensions with the US on this issue. Despite disagreements between Moscow and Ankara over Syria, Libya, and the broader Black Sea region, Russia and Turkey remain determined to cooperate. But the relationship remains unequal.

In October, the United Nations embargo on arms sales to Iran is scheduled to expire.  This was a deadline specified in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal concluded by the Obama Administration.  The Trump administration stridently opposes the lifting of this restriction and is lobbying within the UN Security Council to have the embargo extended indefinitely. 

Until recently, Russia’s dominance in the natural gas markets southwest of its borders appeared unassailable. These days, that is less and less the case. Largely unnoticed yet dramatic changes are taking place in Turkey – Moscow’s top gas customer outside of Germany. 

On July 12, the Armenian and the Azerbaijani armed forces started a border skirmish. Fighting went on for several days, leaving at least 16 dead in its wake. Remarkably enough, the two sides are facing off outside the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, the usual flashpoint. This time around the flare-up took place well to the north, where Armenia’s Tavush region meets Azerbaijan’s Tovuz district. It is little wonder then that the crisis caught Turkey’s attention.