مع تكثيف جهود الإجلاء من قِبَل الولايات المتحدة وحلفائها في مطار كابول، تزداد معها التهديدات الإرهابية للمطار ومجاله الجوي. فلمدة 48 ساعة على الأقل، أشارت المعلومات الاستخباراتية إلى وجود تهديد “خطير” و”مستمر” بشن هجمات من قِبَل فرع تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية في أفغانستان، المعروف باسم ولاية خراسان الإسلامية (ISKP). وللمرة الأولى، بدأت طائرات النقل العسكرية يوم السبت بإطلاق مشاعل حرارية مضيئة أثناء الإقلاع – في مؤشر واضح على تهديد محتمل للاستهداف بصاروخ أرض – جو.
What’s next in Afghanistan? The prospects for future political violence
As the U.S. withdrew troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban pushed through large portions of the country, capturing strategic regional centers and ultimately securing the capital city of Kabul. In its pursuit, the Taliban faced relatively little resistance as it seized government strongholds. Rather than widespread fighting, reports indicate that Taliban fighters often cut deals with soldiers, offering payoffs or demanding surrenders. At the same time and as of the time of writing, the Taliban announced a general amnesty, encouraging former government officials and women to support the group.
Whether and how long this period of limited resistance and amnesty might last are unclear. What are the prospects for future political violence both within and outside the country?
Dr. Marvin Weinbaum, director of MEI’s Afghanistan and Pakistan program, joins host Alistair Taylor for a bonus episode responding to the Taliban’s rapid overthrow of the Afghan military and government over the past week.
Background Briefing: The Geopolitics of Afghan-Iranian Relations
The below is an excerpt from the article, “The Geopolitics of Afghan-Iranian Relations,” by Ali A. Jalali, in the Summer 2021 issue of The Middle East Journal. The full article has been made available for free download for a limited time.
الكارثة الأفغانية وعواقبها على الشرق الأوسط الكبير
أولًا، انتصار طالبان يمثل انتصارًا هائلًا لرواية القاعدة والحركة الجهادية الأوسع. فبعد عشرين عامًا من وقوع الهجمات على الولايات المتحدة، ها هي الولايات المتحدة تُهزَم مرة أخرى وتُجبّر على الانسحاب بشكل مُذَل. سيكون هذا الانتصار بمثابة “برهان على صحة مبدأ” التجنيد الرئيسي للحركات الجهادية المتطرفة لعقود قادمة، ويجب أن نتوقع زيادة جديدة في التجنيد والعمل الجهادي في المنطقة، وزيادة المخاطر على المصالح الأمريكية والأراضي الأمريكية. ومن ثم فعلى الولايات المتحدة العمل مع الحلفاء والشركاء في المنطقة لوقف هذا المد المحتمل.
The Cipher Brief:Did you ever envision that the U.S. would pull out so quickly or completely leaving the Afghan military on its own without U.S. air support?
General Votel: I did not anticipate this during my time – but once the President sets a hard departure date – then a fast withdrawal is inevitable. No Commander wants to accept unnecessary risk with troops on the ground when you are up against a clearly articulated departure date.
Testimony | "Briefing on Human Rights and Freedom of Expression in Morocco"
The following testimony was presented to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission “Briefing on Human Rights and Freedom of Expression in Morocco” on August 12, 2021.
“You’re all going to die”: Persuading Pakistan’s generals to see the light
“You’re all going to die,” the diminutive, senior U.S. intelligence official observed in matter-of-fact fashion to her stunned Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) hosts. Her rather blunt appraisal was uncharacteristic of the engagement to which the senior Pakistani officials had grown accustomed and cut to the chase: the consequences of decades of Pakistan’s support to the Taliban, violent Kashmiri liberation groups, radical madrassas, and extremist local political groups were coming home to roost.
Since late June, Russia has expanded its diplomatic involvement in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. While Russia has offered technical assistance to the GERD’s conflicting parties, it has refrained from inserting itself into the Nile dam dispute as a mediator and instead balanced the views of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia in multilateral fora. Russia’s balancing strategy has been positively received in Sudan and Ethiopia but has created latent frictions with Egypt. Russia has persisted with this non-interference policy, as it has largely prevented a spillover of tensions over the GERD to other areas of cooperation with Egypt and believes that its position will help consolidate its partnership with Ethiopia.
يبدو أن قرارات الرئيس قيس سعيّد في 25 يوليو/تموز بتعليق عمل البرلمان والحكومة كانت تحظى بشعبية كبيرة، على الرغم من الانتقادات الحادة من أولئك الذين استنكروا هذه القرارات باعتبارها انقلابًا أو غير دستورية أو تجاوزًا خطيرًا لسلطته. لكن الاحتفالات الجماهيرية في الشوارع التي اندلعت فور إعلانه المتلفز – على الرغم من حظر التجول ليلًا – مثّلت دليلًا على شعبية تحركاته.
As Kabul falls to the Taliban, it’s safe to say that this is without a doubt the most significant day for al-Qaeda since 9/11. After two decades of relentless counterterrorism pressure from the United States and allies, al-Qaeda’s central leadership was in dire straits just weeks ago.
Weeks before the official U.S. military withdrawal, Afghanistan is unraveling rapidly as the Taliban continue their swift military advance. They now control more than two-thirds of the country and half of the provincial capitals. With the government’s hold on Kabul in doubt, the Biden administration has dispatched troops to evacuate U.S. citizens from the country. We asked experts and scholars from across MEI to weigh in with their thoughts on the situation and what it means for the country, the wider region, and key international players.
A Taliban victory would be a major win for the global jihadist movement
The Afghan government appears to be in a state of precipitous collapse. At least a dozen provincial capitals have fallen to the Taliban in a week. The Taliban now control around 66% of the country.
