Research & Commentary Results

Sheikh Mishal al-Ahmad al-Jaber Al Sabah, Kuwait’s 83-year-old crown prince and half-brother of the late emir, was named to replace Sheikh Nawaf immediately following news of his death on Dec. 16.

Over the last three weeks, there has been a notable escalation in attacks targeting international coalition bases in northeastern Syria orchestrated by Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq and Syria. Concurrently, there have been reports indicating the establishment of operational centers aimed at coordinating these strikes. These developments appear to be part of an effort to exploit the widespread popular discontent with the United States and Israel, with the strategic aim of expanding and consolidating Iranian influence in Syria.

Hamas’ violent and unexpected Oct. 7 attack on Israel has shaken a fragile regional order in the Middle East. Ankara and Tehran are worried that a stronger U.S. presence in the Middle East is detrimental to their regional interests. The war in Gaza might help close the ranks between Turkey and Iran, yet there are serious limitations to a sustainable alliance between the two countries.

As the existential threat of climate change continues to intensify, the future of fossil fuels has been thrust into the international spotlight. Reducing hydrocarbon production and consumption has gained traction in international climate talks amid warnings that the window to avoid catastrophic warming is closing quickly.

يقدم هذا التقرير تقييماً مؤقتاً لاستراتيجية إدارة بايدن الشاملة تجاه الشرق الأوسط، ويبحث الفرص والمخاطر الاستراتيجية للسياسة الأمريكية في المنطقة بشكل عام.

Last week saw a flurry of diplomatic activity between Baghdad and Ankara. The top priorities in the talks were oil exports, the presence of the PKK in Iraq, and Iraq’s water crisis. The outcomes have been unimpressive, but there is an opportunity for Iraq to shake things up and improve its bargaining position, at least on the oil export issue, possibly more.

Efforts to reform the Iraqi Kurdish security forces known as the Peshmerga are at serious risk of failing. Tensions between the ruling parties of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region are not new, but the working relationship between the leaders of the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has collapsed over the past year. As a result, officials within the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs are no longer capable of preventing the politics of partisan self-interest from consuming the reform project. The prospects for the depoliticization and unification of the Peshmerga have rarely seemed more remote.

Although it has fallen off the international news cycle, Baghdad is booming, high on rising oil prices and full, once again, of neo-Abbasid, petroleum-fueled aspirations. Thanks to new anti-money laundering legislation, funds are being funneled not only into hotels and real estate but also into new cultural enterprises. So what does culture in Iraq look like in 2023?

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

For resource-rich countries such as Gulf oil and natural gas producers, sovereign wealth funds have emerged as promising tools to save for future generations, mitigate the effects of outsized economic shocks, and/or be deployed as reserve investment and strategic development funds to spend on human, natural, social, and physical capital.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

Iraq has long had a troubled history with its ethno-religious minorities, one full of oppression and violence. This was true under the Ba’athist regime and continued after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, reaching a nadir with the rise of the Islamic State terrorist group. Although Iraq is now enjoying its most stable period in the past two decades, it is also a case study of the pernicious effects of structural violence, especially toward the more marginalized and vulnerable segments of society.

The current complex situation in the global oil market seriously tests the abilities of OPEC+ to play the role of a regulator, forcing Saudi Arabia to assume the main burden of responsibility for keeping oil prices from declining further and for shoring up the cartel ranks.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

Chinese companies are well positioned to participate in Iraq’s efforts to expand its oil production capacity and develop domestic gas supplies, as they are actively engaged in various energy-related undertakings throughout the country. However, if indeed China’s strategy is, as some have suggested, to become the dominant player in Iraq’s economy, achieving that objective will likely prove difficult given Iraq’s challenging operating environment and contentious politics.