Research & Commentary Results

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet President Donald Trump as a frustrated and disappointed man. His hopes for a clean slate after strained relations with President Barack Obama have been dashed as Trump has endorsed his predecessor’s policies against key Turkish demands. Importantly, Trump last week approved an Obama era plan to arm Syrian Kurds in preparation for the upcoming battle to retake Raqqa from ISIS.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, and Jonathan M. Winer provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Secretary of State Tillerson, Iranian President Rouhani’s battle for re-election, and the efforts to strike a deal for the future of the Libyan state.

The image of the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov steaming across the Mediterranean on its way to the Syrian shore became one of the symbols of Moscow’s military support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. When the aircraft carrier completed its mission in Syria in January this year and made a surprise port call in eastern Libya, analysts immediately suggested that Libya may become another country where Moscow will project its military power.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Randa Slim, Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Mabrouka M’Barek provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkish President Erdogan’s upcoming meeting with Russian President Putin, the upcoming speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah, the suprising popularity of Rouhani’s VP in the Iranian Presidential Race, the Taliban’s new Spring offensive, and protests in Tunisia over a government proposal to give amnesty to the country’s corrupt financial elite.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the victory of Turkish President Erdogan’s “Yes” constitutional referendum campaign to increase his powers, Secretary of Defense Mattis’ trip to the Middle East, the entry of 1,600 candidates for the upcoming Iranian presidential elections, and the alarming violence in Pakistan against accused “blasphemers”.

On Sunday, Turks will decide their political fate for decades to come. If President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wins, he will reach a new pinnacle in a remarkable career to solidify his unchallengeable rule in Turkey, and cement his role to rival that of Ataturk in modern Turkish history. He will still not be fully satisfied with a victory, if it comes. He will go on to use the win as a platform for securing an historic legacy to guide the Turkish state for the years ahead.

On April 16, Turkish citizens will head to the polls to vote in a landmark referendum on the proposed constitutional changes that, if passed, will transition the country from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. This referendum is the pinnacle of an election cycle that has been in motion since 2014, and has left the country increasingly polarized.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Randa Slim, Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the need for an overarching strategy in Syria following U.S. airstrikes, Secretary of State Tillerson’s upcoming visit to Moscow, the likely aftermath of U.S. airstrikes in Syria, Turkey’s growing frustration with U.S. strategy in Syria, and the rise of a hardliner challenger to Rouhani in the upcoming Iranian presidential election.

U.S. cruise missile strikes on al-Shayrat airfield northeast of Damascus early April 7 have changed the dynamics of the Syrian war. The strikes were intended as a clear and contained message to the Assad regime that the barbarism of the Syrian government has its limits. It was not a declaration of war by the United States, but it served to delineate last week’s message from the Americans that regime change in Damascus was “not practical”, a message that may have given Bashar al-Assad the impression that he now had a free hand in the war.

April 6, 2017 – A short overview of what’s at stake in Turkey’s April 16 referendum on constitutional reforms.

This piece was co-authored by Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Read the full article on Lawfare.

A common theme among many postcolonial countries in the Middle East is the difficulty of placing various religious and ethnic groups under the same state’s flag. Libya is different, as its people are overwhelmingly Sunni Arab. Nevertheless, tribal politics have instilled serious divisions in the country. The friction coalesces around two of the three primary regions of Libya, Cyrenaica in the east and Tripolitania in the west (the third historic province of Libya, Fezzan, is to the south of Tripolitania and tends to align its views with its northern neighbor).

Read the full article at The Cipher Brief

Since the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016, Turkey has been looking east for new partners to decrease Ankara’s dependence on traditional Western allies. The election of Donald Trump has contributed to the further estrangement of Turkey’s relationship with its traditional NATO allies, leaving Ankara less comfortable remaining so reliant on Washington for regional security matters.