Research & Commentary Results

On Feb. 4, President Joe Biden announced the end of U.S. support for the Saudi Arabia-led coalition’s offensive military operations in Yemen. This decision fuelled optimism about a U.S. return to negotiations over the JCPOA with Iran. Instead of engaging with the United States, Iran has supported the Houthi-orchestrated Marib offensive and stepped up its diplomatic efforts in Yemen.

For many decades, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been bitter rivals, but not over women. If there was a competition, it was only over whose government could impose more limitations on their female population.

With debate on Yemen in recent weeks focused on the decision by the U.S. State Department to revoke the Houthis’ designation as an FTO, the Joint Declaration (JD) proposal by U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths has received relatively little attention. Since the global outbreak of COVID-19 a year ago, the U.N. special envoy has sought to use the urgency engendered by the pandemic to broker a nationwide cease-fire alongside a set of confidence-building measures — branded as the JD — between the Houthi rebels and the Republic of Yemen Government. But the content of the proposal is not new, nor is it a recipe for effective de-escalation and sustainable conflict resolution.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

Sahar Khamis, Sabina Henneberg, Karam Shaar, and Ibrahim Jalal join host Alistair Taylor to examine the legacy and impact of the Arab Spring in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Syria ten years after the uprisings began.

Ömer Faruk Gergerlioğlu is everything Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hates. He is a disillusioned former Islamist, a member of Parliament from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and a human rights defender. Hence the jail sentence of two years and six months against him for a 2016 Twitter post advocating peace. Last week, Turkey’s top appeals court approved the jail sentence against Gergerlioğlu for spreading terrorist propaganda five years after his Twitter post, paving the way for him to be barred from Parliament.

The tiny Persian Gulf country of Qatar has chosen a herculean task for itself: to mediate between the United States and Iran. As Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani put it on Feb. 10, Doha “is working on de-escalation through a political and diplomatic process.” To this end, al-Thani recently spoke to U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and U.S. Special Representative for Iran Robert Malley. 

Ongoing conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Yemen are expected to continue to destabilize the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in 2021. However, technology will likely add another layer of complexity to these conflicts and reshape the region throughout the 2020s. When the Arab Spring began a decade ago, the biggest challenge facing long-standing Arab autocrats was grappling with the power of social media and the rise of online political opposition by tech-savvy millennial activists. In the 2020s, however, regional governments are now facing a new set of emerging technologies that will shape not only domestic politics but also regional geopolitical dynamics. These advancing technologies include: drone, cyber, and space technologies.

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

“لم تحقق الولايات المُتحدة أي نتائج، بل وجهت إشارات خاطئة عندما تراجعت عن دورها في مواجهة الحوثيين”.

When it comes to Turkey-NATO ties, Ankara is regarded as more of a problem than an ally these days. Not only did it purchase a Russian S-400 air defense system, but its gunboat diplomacy in the eastern Mediterranean also raised the specter of military conflict between NATO allies when Greek and Turkish naval flotillas steamed directly toward each other this past summer. There is one region, however, where Turkey can help NATO efforts: the Black Sea.

Dr. Marwa Maziad discusses the relationship between Turkey and Egypt over the long term, analyzing the causes and effects of the divergent approaches to domestic and regional politics held presently by the respective Turkish and Egyptian presidents.

Paul Goble, Gonul Tol, and Alex Vatanka join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the role of Russia, Turkey, and Iran in the South Caucasus.

The president’s decision to end support for Saudi Arabia’s offensive operations in Yemen was certainly broadly anticipated. Nevertheless, it offers new hope for an end to more than six years of brutal conflict that has largely pitted Saudi-led coalition forces against Houthi rebels supported by Iran.

Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s presidential term ended on Feb. 7, 2021, but he remains in office, determined to hold onto power. Backed by Qatar, the incumbent president has become increasingly dictatorial, waging wars against the country’s independent media, political opposition, and the federal member states.