Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Zubair Iqbal, Alex Vatanka, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on issues including India’s Middle East policy as its foreign minister is set to visit Iraq and Syria, the opening of relations between Iran and Turkey following the latter’s recent failed coup, and the latest signs of tension within Afghanistan’s shaky unity government.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI expert W. Robert Pearson provides analysis on the failed coup in Turkey and the impending crackdown on opposition. Marvin Weinbaum considers whether the unpopularity of Pakistan’s government could put it at risk of a military coup of its own. And Charles Lister looks at how ISIS is adapting in the face of territorial losses in Iraq and Syria.

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Hassan Mneimneh, Daniel Serwer, Paul Scham, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the ISIS bombing in Baghdad, this week’s NATO summit in Warsaw, Israel’s outreach to Africa, and the trial in Iran over the ransacking of the Saudi embassy.

Iraqi PM Under Pressure after ISIS Atrocity
Hassan Mneimneh, MEI Scholar

After the liberation of Sirte from ISIS, now the really hard work begins. The nine-member Presidential Council (P.C.) and the Government of National Accord (G.N.A.) that it named under Prime Minister Fayez Serraj have yet to receive an affirmative vote from the House of Representatives (H.O.R.) in Tobruk. Although a majority of H.O.R. members were prepared many weeks ago to confirm Serraj and his cabinet, speaker Aquila Saleh declined to bring the matter to a vote.

Lieutenant General Abdulwahab al-Saadi, the Iraqi commander of the Iraqi forces fighting to retake Fallujah, said June 23 that his units held 80 percent of the city. This contrasts with the estimate from the U.S. military spokesman in Iraq on June 22, who said that Iraqi forces held only a third of the city. Whatever the exact figure, after heavy fighting, often street-by-street, the Islamic State will lose the city.

The Libyan Presidential Council (P.C.), representing a rough consensus of Libyan political forces, is making slow but promising gains in several key areas. There will probably be setbacks on the road to the kind of progress that will generate wider support from both key Libyan factions and the general populace. Signs are encouraging, however, in areas such as security and legitimacy. It is too early to say that the Government of National Accord (G.N.A.) appointed by the P.C. is truly governing, but it is taking steps that provide more confidence to the international community.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Scham, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent events including the battle against ISIS for Fallujah, Israel’s upcoming address to the EU Parliament, and Pakistan’s upcoming accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

ISIS to Lose Fallujah
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI chairman Richard A. Clarke responds to the mass shooting in Orlando, and Charles Lister and Antoun Issa provide analysis on events including the pushing back of ISIS in Libya and the upcoming meeting of Hamas and Fatah.

What To Do, and What Not To Do, to Stop the Next Orlando
Richard A. Clarke, Chairman of the Board of Governors

In this week’s briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Herman Franssen, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the battle for Fallujah, Thursday’s OPEC meeting, and Saad Hariri’s defeat in Tripoli, Lebanon.

Tough Battle Ahead for Iraqi Forces in Fallujah
Charles Lister, Resident Fellow

A new American opera called Fallujah debuted this spring, bringing attention to post-traumatic stress disorders suffered by U.S. marines who fought in Iraq. The opera joins a list of American artworks that have explored the impact of the Iraq war on American lives. The big elephant in the room, however, are the Iraqi victims of the war and the deafening silence in U.S. discourse on the horrific consequences the war brought on them.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Marvin G. Weinbaum, Charles Lister, Hassan Mneimneh, and Paul Scham provide analysis on recent events including the killing of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour, deadly blasts targeting regime-held territory in Syria, Iraq’s intra-Shiite feud, and Avigdor Lieberman’s appointment as Israel’s Defense Minister.

Regional Cooperation Series

This Policy Paper is part of The Middle East Institute’s Regional Cooperation Series. Throughout 2016, MEI will be releasing several policy papers by renowned scholars and experts exploring possibilities to foster regional cooperation across an array of sectors. The purpose is to highlight the myriad benefits and opportunities associated with regional cooperation, and the high costs of the continued business-as-usual model of competition and intense rivalry.

Summary

This paper is part of a MEI scholar series titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”

Philip Gordon, a former Middle East policy adviser in the White House, likes to say that President Barack Obama learned three lessons from the region’s unending turmoil.

This article was first published on RealClearWorld.

Iraq is enduring a dangerous political crisis. Its substance, however, is under dispute. For many, it is a valiant attempt at reform, and at fulfilling the long overdue promise of sound governance, against a system brought to a halt by corruption and dysfunction. For others, it is a questionable maneuver to restore autocracy, and to unravel the checks and balances that have been instituted over more than a decade. The truth, however, is not somewhere in between, irrespective of the many smokescreens that the opponents of reform may raise.