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A dream scenario for ISIS in northeastern Syria
A photo taken from Turkey's Sanliurfa province, on October 09, 2019 shows smoke rises at the site of Ras al-Ayn city of Syria as Turkish troops along with the Syrian National Army begin Operation Peace Spring in northern Syria against PKK/YPG, Daesh terrorists.
  • Analysis
  • A dream scenario for ISIS in northeastern Syria

    Turkey’s cross-border incursion into northeastern Syria has stirred up a hornet’s nest of instability and threats. If left unchecked, this latest “war within a war” will have deeply destabilizing consequences for many years.

    The European Commission’s new president and the MENA region: Status quo or change?
    BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - SEPTEMBER 10, 2019: EU Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen is posing in front of the Berlaymont, the EU Commission headquarter on September 10, 2019. Today, the elected President Ursula von der Leyen presented the new Commission, it will reflect the priorities and ambitions set out in the Political Guidelines. The Commission is structured around the objectives President-elect von der Leyen was elected on by the European Parliament. (Photo by Thierry Monasse/Getty Images)
  • Analysis
  • The European Commission’s new president and the MENA region: Status quo or change?

    European Council President Charles Michel may have the most prestigious political post in the European Union, but the true power lies with the European Commission, the Union’s executive branch, whose president represents the EU abroad. Will the nomination of Ursula von der Leyen, the first woman to hold this post, affect relations between the EU and the Middle East in the years ahead?  For her part, von der Leyen has said she will focus mainly on such matters as an “ambitious climate agenda,” a fair social market economy, and safeguarding democratic values in Europe, but the president-elect will also have to address developments in the Middle East. This will not be new territory for her.

    October 15, 2019

    Trump stirs up a hornet’s nest in Syria
     A Syrian regime soldier waves the national flag a street on the western entrance of the town of Tal Tamr in the countryside of Syria's northeastern Hasakeh province on October 14, 2019.
  • Commentary
  • Trump stirs up a hornet’s nest in Syria

    In one fell swoop, the U.S. has found itself evacuating a third of the country; breaking away from a 100,000-strong partner we trained and equipped; and watching it surrender to the regime that we have stood against from day one. In the chaos that has ensued, ISIS prisoners have been let loose, hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced, and a once relatively stable northeastern Syria has been thrown into a potentially intractable pit of ethnic, sectarian, and political conflict. The consequences of America’s self-destruction in Syria will be felt for many, many years to come.

    US withdrawal may benefit the Syrian regime
    Pro-Turkish Syrian fighters cross the border into Syria as they take part in an offensive against Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria launched by the Turkish military, on October 11, 2019.
  • Commentary
  • US withdrawal may benefit the Syrian regime

    The biggest losers from President Trump’s arbitrary decision to allow Turkish forces to enter Syria may end up being pro-revolution Syrians and civilians living in Idlib.

    October 15, 2019

    Turkey’s Asia Anew Initiative: Assessment and Shortcomings
    Turkish FM Mevlut Cavusoglu | Ambassadors' Conference | 8-8-19
  • Analysis
  • Turkey’s Asia Anew Initiative: Assessment and Shortcomings

    On August 5, 2019 Turkey’s Foreign Ministry launched the Asia Anew initiative, whose declared aim is to give greater weight to cooperation with Asian countries in four substantive areas. This article shows that, although few details have emerged regarding how Ankara intends to implement this initiative, there is nonetheless sufficient reason to question whether it is viable or sustainable.

    October 15, 2019

    Turkey’s Endgame in Syria
  • Analysis
  • Turkey’s Endgame in Syria

    In a stunning announcement on Sunday, the Trump administration gave the nod to a Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria, an operation that would entail clashes with Washington’s Kurdish allies in the area. The U.S. military, which has around 1,000 troops in Syria, would not “support or be involved in the operation.” But the White House said it would pull back U.S. forces stationed near the Syrian-Turkish border to clear the way for Ankara’s troops.

    The Turkish offensive in northern Syria: The view from Europe
    French President Emmanuel Macron (R) and German Chancellor Angela Merkel give a press conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris on October 13, 2019 as they meet for a working dinner ahead of the EU summit.
  • Commentary
  • The Turkish offensive in northern Syria: The view from Europe

    The Turkish offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces could result in a military success, but it will also seriously damage Turkey’s image in Europe and elsewhere.

    October 15, 2019

    Choosing the “least-bad” option on Syria
    Photo by BULENT KILIC/AFP via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • Choosing the “least-bad” option on Syria

    Washington has a hard long-term choice when it comes to Syria. The best chance for an optimal solution through a negotiated political deal was lost years ago. The U.S. now must choose a policy which will yield only a “least-bad” result.

    Operation Peace Spring: The Situation in Northeastern Syria
    Middle East Institute
  • Podcast
  • Operation Peace Spring: The Situation in Northeastern Syria

    MEI Senior Fellow W. Robert Pearson and Non-resident Scholar Elizabeth Dent join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria following the sudden withdrawal of US troops from the Turkish-Syrian border earlier this week.

    October 11, 2019

    Russia’s efforts to expand the Astana process in Syria
     President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan (C), President of Russia Vladimir Putin (L) and President of Iran Hassan Rouhani (R) pose for a photo after the joint press conference held within the Turkey-Russia-Iran trilateral summit at Cankaya Mansion in Ankara, Turkey on September 16, 2019.
  • Analysis
  • Russia’s efforts to expand the Astana process in Syria

    On Sept. 16, the presidents of Russia, Iran, and Turkey met in Ankara to discuss the resolution of the Syrian civil war. In all three countries, the Ankara summit was hailed as a major success, as negotiations on the formation of a Syrian constitutional committee concluded and progress was made toward resolving other outstanding challenges, such as the future of northeastern Syria and the ongoing struggle for Idlib.

    October 7, 2019

    Trade, Reform, and Revitalization: Toward a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement
  • Analysis
  • Trade, Reform, and Revitalization: Toward a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement

    A question as to the value of a U.S.-Egypt Free Trade Agreement (FTA) misses the point. The question should not be whether an FTA would be in the interest of both parties since there is abundant evidence that it would. The question is what kind of FTA would best suit the needs, both short and long term, of the two parties: shallow integration or deep integration? This report argues that notwithstanding several hurdles, it is in the interest of both countries to move swiftly and decisively toward a deep FTA.

    Trump greenlights Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria
    A Syrian boy watches as Turkish military vehicles, part of a US military convoy, take part in joint patrol in the Syrian village of al-Hashisha on the outskirts of Tal Abyad town along the border with Turkey, on October 4, 2019.
  • Commentary
  • Trump greenlights Turkish incursion into northeastern Syria

    A unilateral Turkish military operation will worsen the already toxic mood vis-à-vis Erdogan on the Hill and might prompt a new round of sanctions at a time when Trump was trying to convince the Congress to hold off on punishing Turkey.

    Turkish-backed Syrian armed opposition groups to unite under one banner
    Syrian National Army and National Independence Front merge
  • Commentary
  • Turkish-backed Syrian armed opposition groups to unite under one banner

    After a long-drawn-out series of negotiations, Turkey has successfully convinced more than 40 armed opposition groups in northern Syria to unite under a single umbrella, directly under the command of the Syrian Interim Government’s Ministry of Defense.