October 25, 2018 – This week, in a highly anticipated speech on the Khashoggi affair, Turkish President Erdogan promised a lot but said little; the “Davos in the Desert” conference opened in Riyadh with an appearance by the Saudi crown prince; and the United States continued to send mixed signals. Karen Young, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, and Gonul Tol, director of MEI’s Turkey program, join host Paul Salem to discuss the latest developments.
Update on Jamal Khashoggi; Afghan elections preview
In this episode, MEI’s Gerald Feierstein and Gonul Tol continue last week’s discussion on the tragedy and ongoing foreign relations crisis over Jamal Khashoggi, and Ahmad Majidyar gives a preview of this weekend’s parliamentary elections in Afghanistan.
The disappearance of journalist and commentator Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul has sparked the most serious crisis to face relations between the Trump administration and Riyadh. It has also posed a major diplomatic challenge for Turkey’s President Erdogan. MEI’s Jerry Feierstein and Gonul Tol join host Paul Salem to discuss the fallout of this developing crisis and potential tragedy.
Hopes for progress in Yemen have been stymied by setbacks in recent weeks, perpetuating a military and political stalemate. Marcia Biggs, special correspondent for PBS NewsHour, joins guest host Gerald Feierstein to discuss the humanitarian conditions she witnessed on the ground and what the international community can do to help reach a resolution to the crisis.
It was a busy week for Middle East policy as President Trump touched on a range of key issues at the United National General Assembly in New York, including Iran sanctions, the intra-GCC dispute, OPEC policy, Saudi domestic reforms, and the Middle East peace process, among others. Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s director for policy research, programs and government relations, and Ahmad Majidyar, director for MEI’s IranObserved program, join host Paul Salem to break down what was said, as well as what issues were left off the agenda.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Randa Slim, Jean-François Seznec, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including escalating tensions in Idlib, protests in Basra and their implications for Iraqi politics, a Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s loan to help make up for Aramco IPO revenue, and Egypt’s diplomatic outreach to China.
No Saudi official has been more applauded and vilified at the same time than Mohamed bin Salman, the Crown Prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. That is not surprising, given the transformational nature of the project he’s leading at home, which is bound to create both winners—those who wish to open up the kingdom—and losers—those who wish more or less to preserve the status quo.
UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths will lead a new round of negotiations next week to attempt to end the long and costly war in Yemen. A new UN report this week that outlines possible war crimes by the parties engaged in the conflict underscores the need to find a resolution. MEI’s Gerald Feierstein, a former U.S. ambassador to Yemen, and Randa Slim, who was a member of the last UN negotiating team on Yemen, join host Paul Salem to assess the prospects for the peace talks.
Oman’s Transition to a Post-Oil Economy: Arching Toward Asia
The development of Duqm Port and Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is at the forefront of Oman’s efforts to transition to a post-oil economy. The Malaysian economic transformation management model, the Singaporean example of achieving prosperity through combining free trade and business-friendly policies with its role as a trans-shipment and logistics hub, and an initial infusion of substantial Chinese investment capital and project participation all have played central roles in how this process has unfolded — and will likely remain key determinants of its future progress.
Houthi attack in strategic shipping lane could undermine oil markets
Saudi Arabia temporarily halted all oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandab strait on Wednesday, Jul. 25, after two of its very large crude carriers were attacked by Houthi rebels. According to Saudi and Yemeni officials, the attack was launched from the besieged port city of Hodeida.
Can the Hodeidah offensive open the door to dialogue?
With the Saudi-led coalition’s offensive operations against the strategic port and city of Hodeidah stalled, eyes are now on UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths as he attempts to negotiate a political resolution. Fatima al-Asrar, senior analyst at the Arabia Foundation, and Sama’a al-Hamdani, director of the Yemen Cultural Institute for Heritage and the Arts, join guest host Gerald Feierstein to assess the state of the four-year-old Yemen conflict and its impact on the Yemeni people.
Even though energy production and exports are the lifeblood of all Arab states in the Gulf, the present crisis between Qatar on the one hand and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt on the other has had very little influence on the economics of oil and gas either internationally or within the region. However, the countries involved have a lot to gain from a resolution of the conflict, particularly if it leads to greater energy market integration.
There are promising signs that the Saudi-backed coalition in Yemen’s assault on the port of Hodeida is opening a window of opportunity for a return to the political process. After a year of stalling, the Houthis have reportedly expressed a willingness to hand over operation of the port to a neutral third party, most likely the U.N. itself. Meanwhile, U.N.
As international companies leave Iran under U.S. pressure, the Iranian government is scrambling to salvage as much foreign investment as possible. The top leadership in Tehran believes the solution is to engage with Russia, China, and the “east” to replace the West’s hesitant commitment to the Iranian market. But this eastward approach is a pipe dream, and there is plenty of history to prove it.
The battle for Hodeida and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen
Aid groups are warning that a major offensive underway to capture the strategic port of Hodeida could make Yemen’s humanitarian crisis even worse. Basma Alloush (Norwegian Refugee Council), Farea Al-Muslimi (Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies), and Gerald Feierstein (MEI), join host Paul Salem to assess the situation.
