Research & Commentary Results

The nationwide protests are the most significant domestic political development in Lebanon since the end of the civil war. It would be useful to examine both the short and long term political potential of this new awakening.

In the short term, the protests have already mobilized the power of the public to bring down a corrupt and ineffective government, and to gain great leverage on the rejection or acceptance of any new government. They have also raised urgent national demands and forced the ruling class to confront these demands. 

On a recent trip to my native Lebanon I looked on its ongoing, unprecedented protests with both wonder and worry. The country is a month into widespread anti-government demonstrations. The protests’ scale ebbs and flows but the relative calm during my stay had a fleeting if not sinister quality to it. That calm is unraveling. However this chapter of Lebanon’s history unfolds, this complicated country has changed irreversibly.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been a powerful driver of the development of existing and new Eurasian rail routes. A web of competing and complementary rail lines has begun to form across the Eurasian landmass. Railway cargo service between China and Europe has fast become a compelling “middle option” — cheaper than air and faster than sea.

The MENA region needs bolder and deeper economic reforms. GDP growth is projected to be 0.6 percent in the region in 2019, a fraction of what is needed to create enough jobs for its fast-growing working-age population. Even in the few countries that have had periods of higher growth since the 2011 Arab Spring, poverty rates have failed to drop, suggesting the need for reforms to instill fair competition and promote more inclusive patterns of growth.

On the surface the latest protests in Iran appear to be not that different from the previous ones in late 2017 and early 2018. In reality, however, things are quite different this time around, and the Iranian authorities are deeply alarmed.

The Saudi Aramco IPO got started this Sunday morning with shares priced at SAR 30-32 ($8-8.50) each, valuing the company at $1.7 trillion, $300 billion below the original estimate. The lower valuation has been expected for some time by most investment banks and many financial analysts. The proceeds are expected to fund the Public Investment Fund’s forays into non-energy-based companies, advanced technologies, and even robot-filled cities.

In Lebanon, the protests have entered their second month with contending parties stuck in a stalemate that is not hurting enough to incentivize concessions from any party. Ruling elites are at a loss what to do.

East Ghouta is perhaps the darkest example of renewed Assad regime rule over former opposition territory. 18 months after the regime recaptured the area, its security forces and intelligence apparatus continue to terrorize Syrians there. Night-time raids on homes, mass arrests, and forced disappearances are common occurrences across the region. Intelligence forces assert themselves in every aspect of daily life, especially at the ubiquitous checkpoints where personnel extort residents for bribes when they pass, subjecting them to security checks that can lead to civilians either being arrested on the spot or conscripted into military service. In addition, residents of East Ghouta are facing a humanitarian crisis amid a total lack of basic services, from sewage to schools and hospitals, and the basic pillars of the local economy remain in total disrepair.

The Royal Institute for Strategic Studies (IRES), charged by the Government of Morocco with analyzing and monitoring the country’s external relations, turned its attention to the U.S.-Morocco relationship at a conference conducted at its Rabat headquarters on Oct. 29. Taking note of the long history of the bilateral relationship — Morocco was one of the first countries in the world to recognize the new American republic in 1777 — panelists reviewed the current state of political, economic, and cultural engagement between the two nations.

The Nov. 1 seizure by Malta of two 2000-cubic-foot containers full of Libyan currency printed by the Russian state printer, Goznak, that was intended for delivery to Libya’s non-internationally recognized eastern government, highlights the continuing importance of the economic aspects of Libya’s ongoing civil war.

On Oct. 29, Prime Minister Saad Hariri submitted his resignation and that of the government, a move that has been hailed as an important victory for the protestors who have taken to the streets across the country for nearly three weeks now. Heralded as al-thawra, or revolution in Arabic, Lebanon is witnessing the rise of an inclusive, decentralized, and grassroots movement that transcends geography, sect, and traditional loyalties to political dynasties and parties.

Iranian mediation might bring the two big political blocs to an agreement on a new government, but the protest movement demands only new, clean faces and won’t readily accept another cabinet drawn from discredited political blocs.

Now is a time to stand with the people of Lebanon, and to maintain support for the country’s constitutional institutions.

Today, on the streets of Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and other countries, we hear the demands of the youth, asking for justice, governance, dignity, and jobs. In contrast to these demands, we see governments unwilling or unable to move towards systems of governance that would ensure transparency, accountability, and fair competition for all. Corruption can only be vanquished if transparency, a rigorous justice system, and credible redress mechanisms are put in place. The World Bank can and must re-engage on that path.

The Trump administration inherited a number of complex problems in the Syrian file from its predecessors in the White House. In dealing with the Syrian crisis, the Obama administration had three main priorities: not disturbing Iran in Syria during the process of nuclear negotiations, working with Russia toward a ceasefire in various parts of Syria (without trusting that Russia could deliver or should have the upper hand), and, most importantly, carrying out a limited military intervention in the northeast to defeat ISIS — an issue it considered separately from the Syrian crisis.