In the 19th century, the Gulf was a British lake. In the 20th century, American warships played an all but unchallenged role securing the safe and unfettered passage of oil to the West. As the 21st century progresses, the transition to a new era is unstoppable.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Even if we assume that there is goodwill between the U.S. and Iran to improve relations, the power of algorithms will place major stumbling blocks in the way of efforts toward future normalization. A priori programming of foreign policy options and lines of argument have led to immutable algorithms causing the relationship between the two countries to calcify. On both sides, the key personalities who define national security, interpret events, and shape policies toward one another have had virtually no direct contact or experiences with each other’s country. They interpret events, extract meanings, react to one another, and delineate policies through prisms, images, metaphors, binaries, groupthink, and in the lexicon of artificial intelligence, algorithms.
The announcement of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), a 25 year-long economic and development agreement between China and Iran, has immediately added to the intensifying discourse concerning US-China Geostrategic Competition. Nonetheless, a closer look at its implications suggests that it may be useful in achieving some U.S. goals with Iran: particularly regime modernization.
“يبدو أن كل شيء له علاقة بالمؤتمر في تركيا مازال مُعلقًا”.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
“يبدو الحفاظ على النسخة الأصلية من “خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة” هو أفضل السُبُل لروسيا لمواءمة هذه الاعتبارات الثلاثة”.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
“بينما تعد ندرة المياه في إيران وبقية دول الشرق الأوسط مشكلة طويلة الأمد، فإن بعض الجهود للتعامل معها تبدو محاولات يائسة ولم يتم التخطيط لها دائمًا بعناية”.
Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.
Iran and Iraq are frequently at odds over water issues. Iraq depends on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for nearly all of its water. But Iran is building dams to redivert some of that water, causing alarm and creating major water shortages for Iraq.
What U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s letter to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani makes clear is the declining domestic support in the U.S. for continued military involvement in Afghanistan. With his message, Blinken also signaled the demise of the Doha negotiations between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government and the start of a new phase. Facing domestic political disagreements and the Covid-19 pandemic, the Biden Administration was left with no option but to finalize and implement a viable Afghan strategy.
The United States and Pakistan must work together to secure the country’s future.