Research & Commentary Results

The United States has been pushing Turkey for a campaign to eject ISIS from a 60-mile stretch of border that it still controls between the Syrian towns of Jarabulus and Azaz. However, the joint U.S.-Turkey operation has faced several roadblocks. From the outset, the United States and Turkey have had different goals. Washington wants Ankara to close the border, which is the sole remaining crossing point for ISIS militants.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Schmitz, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the next round of Syrian peace talks, the cease-fire in Yemen and the negotiations ahead, and Saudi King Salman’s visits to Egypt and Turkey.

Round Two of Syrian Peace Talks
Randa Slim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Charles Lister, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent events including Turkish President Erdogan’s visit to Washington, the reshuffling of Iraq’s cabinet, King Salman’s forthcoming visit to Egypt, and the latest attempts by Jabhat al-Nusra over the weekend to disrupt the Syrian political process.

Just days before the first anniversary of the Saudi air campaign in Yemen on March 26, the U.N. special rapporteur to Yemen, Ould Cheikh, announced a cease-fire to begin April 10 followed by a third round of talks between the warring Yemeni factions on April 18. These talks have a better chance of success than previous attempts. The Houthi-Saleh alliance has long insisted that a complete and final cease-fire proceed any talks, and in previous attempts at negotiation, announced cease-fires never took hold and talks went nowhere.

Turkey and the European Union have reached what they have labelled an “historic” agreement. The Europeans believe they have papered over an expanding and divisive refugee problem, while the Turks think they have a wider door for E.U. membership. The Europeans, however, have no intention of bringing Turkey into its fold anytime soon as it would dramatically accelerate the growth of its rightwing parties. Neither do the Turks have a genuine interest in solving Europe’s refugee crisis, since the crisis itself is Turkey’s leverage to gain concessions from Europe.

Support for civil society and civil society organizations (CSOs) has been an integral part of endeavors by most major policy makers to advance democratization across the globe, with particular emphasis on the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region since the late 1980s. The role envisaged for CSOs within this context is to increase government accountability, filter the interests of ordinary citizens into policy processes, and advance democratization generally, this process is often connected with human rights and social progress. This essay investigates how this vision of civil society is constituted in the case of Turkey, using empirical evidence gathered through 38 in-depth qualitative interviews with women’s organizations from across the political, religious, and geographical spectrum.

The European Union and Turkey agreed March 17 on a plan to address the Syrian refugee crisis. Under the deal any migrants arriving in Europe, starting next week, will be sent back to Turkey. Ankara, in exchange, will receive expedited aid intended to help Syrians in Turkey, as well as the promise of reignited E.U. membership talks.

This article was first published on Europe’s World.

Turkey first applied for associate membership in the European Economic Community in 1959, and Europe has ever since had the upper hand in relations with Ankara. But the EU’s relationship with Turkey has been turned upside down by the Syrian refugee crisis, and the alarm it has caused in European countries.

Turkey is confronting a nightmare as its two archenemies, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), gain ground in Syria with the help of U.S. and Russian air cover. Turkey has long called for a no-fly zone in northern Syria to protect areas held by the opposition and a halt to the PYD advances west of the Euphrates. Frustrated with U.S. cooperation with the PYD, Ankara has insisted that the PYD is a terrorist organization and poses a grave danger to Turkey’s national security.

MEI experts Charles Lister, Paul Salem, Randa Slim, and Gonul Tol weigh in on the intensifying battles in northern Syria, with dire predictions for the humanitarian situation as well as for the internal stability of neighbors. Lister argues the loss of the Azaz corridor would be a “catastrophic morale blow” to the Syrian opposition, while Tol believes current Turkish attacks on YPG positions is not a prelude to an invasion.

The cessation of hostilities was to begin in Syria on February 19. As was the case with the late 2011 and mid-2012 ceasefire efforts, this one is likely to fail. Instead of halting fire, the Syrian government is currently trying to isolate and assert dominion over the rebel-held portion of Aleppo, and, just as importantly, to block armed opposition supply lines extending down from Turkey. The Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian allies want to impose surrender terms on the armed opposition, not negotiate a compromise political deal.

Read the full article on CNN.

Turkey’s nightmare is coming true.

Not only is the battle for Aleppo sending tens of thousands of desperate people fleeing toward Turkey, but the fall of the rebel-held city would deliver a major blow to Ankara’s Syria policy.

Gonul Tol, director of MEI’s Center for Turkish Studies, delivered the following testimony at a hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives’ Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats on February 3, 2016. Click here for video of the hearing.

Mr. Chairman, members of the Committee, it is an honor to be invited to speak with you today about the political trends in Turkey in 2016.

U.N. mediator to Yemen, Walid Sheikh, recently succeeded in negotiating the release of a number of political prisoners held by Houthi rebels, including a government minister, as a confidence-building measure. Despite this small success, the third round of negotiations in the Yemeni conflict appear to be floundering without a start date.

Yemen’s war is a forgotten catastrophe. Peter Maurer, the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, stated in August: “Yemen after five months looks like Syria after five years.” All too commonly, civilians are bearing the brunt of the violence in Yemen. According to the United Nations, more than 2,700 people have been killed and more than 5,000 wounded. Schools, hospitals, and roads have been destroyed by the Saudi-led air campaign.