Research & Commentary Results

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Paul Salem, Charles Lister, Jean-François Seznec, and Jonathan M. Winer provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the shaping of U.S.-Saudi relations, Pompeo’s appointment to secretary of state, Turkey’s capture of Afrin, the future of Saudi energy, and Egypt’s efforts to unite the Libyan military.

Read the full article on The Hill

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will land in the U.S. on March 19 as part of a three week, multi-city tour. It’s his first extended foreign travel, which has already taken him to London, since being named Saudi heir apparent in June 2017.

Rex Tillerson’s unhappy tenure at State Department ends with a whimper – Gerald Feierstein        

Rex Tillerson was never an easy fit for the Trump administration. His management of the State Department was a source of constant frustration for the career staff as well as Capitol Hill. On policy issues, Tillerson hewed more closely than Trump to establishment Republican positions. Allied with Secretary of Defense Mattis and National Security Advisor McMaster, Tillerson often acted as an anchor against the president’s more aggressive impulses.

In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Alex Vatanka, Nathan Stock, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the Senate’s decision to pull out of Yemen, enduring Iran-Pakistan political strain, Egypt’s role in Palestinian reconciliation, and America’s dissolving influence in Syria.

The Middle East is the world’s most arid region and the one most dependent on renewable freshwater resources that originate outside its territories. These resources are largely contained in the Nile, Euphrates-Tigris, and Jordan river basins. An international law-based approach to transboundary watercourse development and management is vital for human security and regional stability. Applying legal principles in the Nile Basin is imperative, as unilateral actions by upstream countries can harm livelihoods on a large scale in downstream countries and destabilize their economies.

Read the full article on The National Interest

Turmoil in Aden over the past few weeks has underlined the existential crisis confronting Yemen. The alliances that have been at the center of the three-year-old civil war—the Hadi government and its Saudi-led coalition of supporters versus the Houthi alliance with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh—have fractured.

Since 9/11, American security strategy has focused on building the military capabilities of global allies in order to advance shared goals and address joint threats. In the Middle East, the results of this approach have been mixed at best. Frustration over U.S. security assistance to the region has grown in Washington, as funding and arms transfers to various state and non-state partners have led to unintended consequences, prompting the Trump administration to reevaluate U.S. aid to Egypt, Pakistan, and the Palestinians.

On Feb. 19, a consortium of oil companies led by the U.S.’s Noble Oil and Israel’s Delek signed a contract to supply the Egyptian energy company Dolphinus with up to 32 billion cubic meters of Israeli gas over ten years.

With the absence of multilateral diplomatic forums in the Middle East and the Trump administration scaling back on U.S. diplomatic outreach, the role of backdoor diplomatic channels, known as “Track II” dialogues, has seldom been more important. Randa Slim, director of MEI’s program on conflict management and Track II dialogues, and Robert Ford, former US ambassador to Syria, join Paul Salem to discuss the role of these dialogues in addressing issues ranging from the Syrian civil war to the conflict in Yemen and regional tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

As the slow wheels of government inch toward policies that lead to cleaner air, Egyptian drivers could be provided with faster results by an unlikely partner—Chinese auto companies.

Read the full article on the Huffington Post.

There is a longstanding argument that inclusion in the political process can moderate Islamist groups. Looking at the evolution of Islamic movements in Egypt and in Indonesia, this essay suggests that patterns of informal inclusion, the nature of regime repression and the role of state ideology can all have significant impacts on the diversity of religious life and mass appeal of reformist voices.

India’s burgeoning economic relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been accompanied by heightened security risks, including in the domain of terrorism. In light of these developments, this article addresses three questions: What is the nature and gravity of the transnational terrorist linkages that exist between India and Gulf Arab countries? What steps has India taken, in concert with its Gulf Arab partners, to counter the terrorist threat? And what more could be done to strengthen India-Gulf Arab counterterrorism (CT) cooperation?

International markets for natural gas — fragmented regionally and with differing price-setting mechanisms — are undergoing profound changes. The foundation is being laid for the emergence of a more globally integrated gas market, and the rapid expansion of the seaborne liquified natural gas (LNG) trade, which has forged links between distant markets, is a major reason why. Qatar — an LNG powerhouse — has dominated the Asia Pacific market, the world’s largest LNG-importing region. However, the Asian market is in a state of flux, as is the entire global LNG sector. This article explores the major changes taking place in international LNG markets, with particular attention to how Qatar is being affected by, and is adapting to them.